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Comprehensive Assessment of Russia's Electric Power Industry's Technological Transformation

机译：俄罗斯电力行业技术改造综合评价

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Abstract— The article discusses the possibilities for and results of structural changes in the electric power industry of Russia, which performs the integrating function for the country’s fuel and energy complex during its transformation in the context of various scenarios supposed for the world’s technological transition to the use of noncarbon energy in the period up to 2040. The optimal lines of technological progress and its acceleration rates in the industry, which ensure full replacement of the existing capacities of gas- and then also coal-fired power plants by new types of equipment, as well as noticeable increase in the share of noncarbon (nuclear and renewable) sources, are investigated. The effect that the choice of a more energy-efficient and diversified structure of generating capacities has on the consumption of energy resources and also on the direct and indirect effects for the national economy of Russia is estimated. For estimating the consequences from structural transformation of the electric power industry, the integral energy and economic characteristics of the conservative and innovative scenarios of its development are calculated. Based on these characteristics, a system of indicators for comprehensively estimating the industry’s development scenarios is proposed that reflect the extent of its technological renovation, energy efficiency, energy balance diversification, price load, and budgetary effectiveness. The results of applying the proposed system of indicators confirmed the advantages of the electric power industry’s innovative-development scenario. The following two strategic objectives can simultaneously be solved within the framework of this scenario in the period up to 2040. First, it will be possible to overcome the long-lasting technological backwardness of the domestic thermal power industry and reach the level of best technologies in gas- and coal-fired power generation. Second, it will be possible to ensure a very rapid growth in the scales of using noncarbon technologies (nuclear and renewable energy), thus setting up a background for achieving a situation in which they would account for up to half the electricity production by the mid 21st century. It is shown that the acceleration of technological progress in the electric power industry will compensate one-third of the losses in Russia’s economy due to decreased export of fuel when a shift is made around the world to noncarbon energy.
机译：摘要 - 本文讨论了俄罗斯电力行业结构变化的可能性和结果，在各种情况下，在世界技术转型的各种情景的背景下，在转型期间对该国的燃料和能源复杂的整合功能进行了整合功能在高达2040年期间使用非碳酸性能。业内技术进步的最佳技术进步及其加速率，确保通过新型设备充分更换了现有的燃气能力，还调查了非碳（核和可再生）来源的份额明显增加，并进行了调查。据估计，选择发电能力更加节能和多样化结构的效果对能源的消费以及俄罗斯国民经济的直接和间接影响。为了估算电力行业结构转型的后果，计算了其开发的保守和创新情景的整体能量和经济特征。基于这些特征，提出了一种全面估算行业发展情景的指标制度，反映了其技术改造，能源效率，能源平衡多样化，价格负荷和预算效果的程度。应用拟议的指标制度的结果证实了电力行业的创新发展场景的优势。以下两个战略目标可以在这方面的框架内同时解决，该方案在该方案的框架内最高可达2040年。首先，有可能克服国内热电行业的长期技术落后，达到最佳技术水平气体和燃煤发电。其次，可以确保使用非碳技术（核和可再生能源）的尺度非常快速的增长，从而建立了实现局势的背景，以实现最多一半的电力生产中期的一半21世纪。结果表明，电力行业的技术进步加速将补偿俄罗斯经济的三分之一的亏损，因为燃料的出口减少时，当世界各地到非碳能源时。

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