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首页> 外文期刊>Thermal engineering >Golden Age of Gas and Its Impact on the World Energy, the Global Carbon Cycle and Climate
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Golden Age of Gas and Its Impact on the World Energy, the Global Carbon Cycle and Climate

机译：天然气的黄金时代及其对世界能源，全球碳循环和气候的影响

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Global and regional resource and environmental problems of production and use of unconventional gas (UG) are studied. Estimations for world and national reserves of various kinds of UG are presented. The dynamics of the gas share in total energy consumption and thermal power generation around the world is analyzed. Projections of the world production of conventional gas and UG are proposed. Variations in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and the corresponding changes in average global air temperature are calculated for various scenarios suggesting unconventional gas substitution of different energy sources. The possible consequences of expected climate changes for Russia's power industry are analyzed. It is shown that, despite the uncertainty in the estimates of the economic and environmental consequences of shale gas (SG) production, its use, according to the available resource estimates, can make it possible to solve global and regional problems associated with energy (import substitution) and environment protection (replacing the less clean coal fuel). However, the development of the huge global resources of this type of fuel can have a significant effect on the chemical and thermal radiative balance of the Earth's atmosphere, and it must be noted that the climatic effect of carbon dioxide emissions from the UG combustion greatly exceeds the consequences of methane leakage during its production. In order to sustain the stability of the global climate system, the development of the world's large UG resources must be accompanied by an equivalent reduction in the use of coal. This is the only way for UG to become a safe energy bridge to the future, able to keep the climate system at the threshold of critical values. Direct effects of possible climatic changes on the territory of Russia for the domestic energy complex are estimated as more positive than adverse, mainly due to lower energy costs for space heating.
机译：研究和生产非常规天然气的全球和区域资源与环境问题。提出了对各种UG的世界和国家储备的估计。分析了全球总能源消耗和火力发电中天然气份额的变化。提出了世界常规天然气和天然气产量的预测。针对各种场景计算了大气中二氧化碳浓度的变化以及相应的全球平均气温的变化，这些变化表明了不同能源的非常规气体替代。分析了预期的气候变化对俄罗斯电力行业的可能后果。结果表明，尽管对页岩气生产的经济和环境后果的估计不确定，但根据现有资源估计，页岩气生产的使用可以解决与能源（进口）有关的全球和区域问题。替代品）和环境保护（更换较不清洁的煤炭燃料）。但是，开发这种燃料的巨大全球资源可能会对地球大气的化学和热辐射平衡产生重大影响，必须指出的是，UG燃烧产生的二氧化碳排放的气候影响大大超过甲烷在生产过程中泄漏的后果。为了维持全球气候系统的稳定性，必须在发展世界上大量的UG资源的同时减少煤炭的使用。这是UG成为通往未来的安全能源桥梁的唯一方法，能够将气候系统保持在临界值的阈值。据估计，俄罗斯境内可能发生的气候变化对国内能源综合体的直接影响要大于不利影响，这主要是由于空间供暖的能源成本较低。

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