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An empirical analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina

机译：阿根廷卷烟需求的实证分析

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摘要

Objective To estimate the long-term and short-term effects on cigarette demand in Argentina based on changes in cigarette price and income per person ＞14 years old. Method Public data from the Ministry of Economics and Production were analysed based on monthly time series data between 1994 and 2010. The econometric analysis used cigarette consumption per person ＞14 years of age as the dependent variable and the real income per person ＞14 years old and the real average price of cigarettes as independent variables. Empirical analyses were done to verify the order of integration of the variables, to test for cointegration to capture the long-term effects and to capture the short-term dynamics of the variables. Results The demand for cigarettes in Argentina was affected by changes in real income and the real average price of cigarettes. The long-term income elasticity was equal to 0.43, while the own-price elasticity was equal to -0.31, indicating a 10% increase in the growth of real income led to an increase in cigarette consumption of 4.3% and a 10% increase in the price produced a fall of 3.1% in cigarette consumption. The vector error correction model estimated that the short-term income elasticity was 0.25 and the short-term own-price elasticity of cigarette demand was -0.15. A simulation exercise showed that increasing the price of cigarettes by 110% would maximise revenues and result in a potentially large decrease in total cigarette consumption. Conclusion Econometric analyses of cigarette consumption and their relationship with cigarette price and income can provide valuable information for developing cigarette price policy.
机译：目的根据卷烟价格和每人＞ 14岁的收入变化，估计阿根廷对卷烟需求的长期和短期影响。方法根据1994年至2010年的月度时间序列数据，对经济和生产部的公共数据进行分析。计量经济学分析以人均＞ 14岁的卷烟消费为因变量，人均实际收入＞ 14岁。卷烟的实际平均价格作为独立变量。进行了经验分析，以验证变量的积分顺序，测试协整以捕获长期影响并捕获变量的短期动态。结果阿根廷的卷烟需求受到卷烟实际收入和实际平均价格变化的影响。长期收入弹性等于0.43，而自有价格弹性等于-0.31，表明实际收入增长了10％，导致卷烟消费增长了4.3％，卷烟消费增长了10％。价格使卷烟消费量下降了3.1％。向量误差校正模型估计卷烟需求的短期收入弹性为0.25，卷烟需求的短期自身价格弹性为-0.15。模拟实验表明，将卷烟价格提高110％将使收入最大化，并可能导致卷烟总消费量大幅下降。结论香烟消费量的经济计量分析及其与香烟价格和收入的关系可以为制定香烟价格政策提供有价值的信息。

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  • 来源
    《Tobacco control》 |2015年第1期|89-93|共5页
  • 作者

    Eugenio Martinez; Raul Mejia; Eliseo J Perez-Stable;

  • 作者单位

    Instituto de Estudios Laborales y del Desarrollo Economico (IELDE) and Consejo de Investigaciones de la Universidad Nacional de Salta (CIUNSa), Facultad de Ciencias Economicas, Universidad Nacional de Salta, Salta, Argentina;

    Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad and Programa de Medicina Interna General, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina;

    Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, Medical Effectiveness Research Center for Diverse Populations, Helen Diller Family Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA, 1545 Divisadero Street, Box 0320 San Francisco, CA 94143-0320, USA;

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