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首页> 外文期刊>Tobacco control >What will it take to get to under 5% smoking prevalence by 2025? Modelling in a country with a smokefree goal
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What will it take to get to under 5% smoking prevalence by 2025? Modelling in a country with a smokefree goal

机译：到2025年，要达到5％的吸烟率将如何？在一个无烟目标的国家建模

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Background New Zealand has a goal of becoming a smokefree nation by the year 2025. Smoking prevalence in 2012 was 17%, but is over 40% for Maori (indigenous New Zealanders). We forecast the prevalence in 2025 under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, and determined what the initiation and cessation rates would have to be to achieve a ＜5% prevalence. Methods A dynamic model was developed using Census and Health Survey data from 1981 to 2012 to calculate changes in initiation by age 20 years, and net annual cessation rates, by sex, age, ethnic group and time period. Similar parameters were also calculated from a panel study for sensitivity analyses. 'Forecasts' used these parameters, and other scenarios, applied to the 2011-2012 prevalence. Findings Since 2002-2003, prevalence at age 20 years has decreased annually by 3.1% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8% to 5.7%) and 1.1% (-1.2% to 3.2%) for non-Maori males and females, and by 4.7% (2.2% to 7.1%) and 0.0% (-2.2% to 1.8%) for Maori, respectively. Annual net cessation rates from the dynamic model ranged from -3.0% to 6.1% across demographic groups, and from 3.0% to 6.0% in the panel study. Under BAU, smoking prevalence is forecast to be 11% and 9% for non-Maori males and females by 2025, and 30% and 37% for Maori, respectively. Achieving ＜5% by 2025 requires net cessation rates to increase to 10% for non-Maori and 20% for Maori, accompanied by halving or quartering of initiation rates. Conclusions The smokefree goal of ＜5% prevalence is only feasible with large increases in cessation rates.
机译：背景技术新西兰的目标是到2025年成为无烟国家。2012年的吸烟率是17％，但毛利人（新西兰土著人）的吸烟率超过40％。我们预测了照常营业（BAU）情景下2025年的患病率，并确定要实现＜5％的患病率，必须有多少起步和戒烟率。方法使用人口普查和健康调查（1981-2012年）数据建立动态模型，以计算按年龄，性别，年龄，族裔和时间段划分的20岁儿童的初始变化以及年净戒烟率。还从小组研究中计算出相似的参数用于敏感性分析。 “预测”使用了这些参数以及其他适用于2011-2012年流行率的情景。调查结果自2002-2003年以来，20岁的患病率每年下降3.1％（95％不确定区间0.8％至5.7％）和非毛利男性和女性分别下降1.1％（-1.2％至3.2％）和4.7％ ％（毛利人）（2.2％至7.1％）和0.0％（-2.2％至1.8％）。在人口统计研究中，动态模型的年度净戒烟率在-3.0％至6.1％之间，而在专题研究中则从3.0％至6.0％。根据BAU，到2025年，非毛利人的男性和女性的吸烟率预计分别为11％和9％，毛利人的吸烟率分别为30％和37％。到2025年要达到＜5％的水平，非毛利人的净戒烟率必须提高到10％，毛利人的戒烟率要提高到20％，同时要使启蒙率降低一半或四分之一。结论＜5％的无烟目标只有在戒烟率大大提高的情况下才可行。

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  • 来源
    《Tobacco control》 |2015年第2期|139-145|共7页
  • 作者

    Takayoshi Ikeda; Linda Cobiac; Nick Wilson; Kristie Carter; Tony Blakely;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand;

    Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand,Centre for Burden of Disease and Cost-Effectiveness, School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Herston, Queensland, Australia;

    Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand;

    Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand;

    Department of Public Health, University of Otago, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New Zealand;

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