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Probabilistic Assessment Of Ship Stability

机译：船舶稳定性的概率评估

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Whilst the task of developing a sound probabilistic stability assessment method is a formidable one given the current depth of knowledge in stochastic dynamical systems, a practical solution is proposed here exploiting the groupiness characteristic of high waves. Rather than attacking directly the complete problem, an effort is made to define a path where, the rigour of the deterministic approach in eliciting the nature of instability is combined with suitable analysis of the probabilistic seaway. Critical wave encounters that could generate instability are identified on the basis of deterministic analysis of ship dynamics. A rational procedure is put forward for calculating the probability of such wave encounters. The probabilities of different capsize modes are distinguished. The method is not biased towards any specific type of mathematical model of ship motions and is easily integrated within a risk assessment framework.
机译：考虑到当前在随机动力学系统中的知识深度，尽管开发一种可靠的概率稳定性评估方法是一项艰巨的任务，但在此提出了一种利用高波群性的实用解决方案。与其直接解决整个问题，不如定义一条路径，在此路径中，确定性方法在引发不稳定本质方面的严格性与对概率海道的适当分析相结合。在对船舶动力学进行确定性分析的基础上，确定可能产生不稳定的关键波浪遭遇。提出了一种合理的程序来计算此类波碰到的概率。区分了不同容量模式的概率。该方法不会偏向任何特定类型的船舶运动数学模型，并且很容易集成到风险评估框架中。

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