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The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on China's transport sectors based on the CGE model coupled with a decomposition analysis approach

机译：基于CGE模型的Covid-19大流行对中国运输部门的影响与分解分析方法相结合

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摘要

As one of the most vulnerable sectors exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic, transport sectors have been severely affected. However, the shocks and impact mechanisms of infectious diseases on transport sectors are not fully understood. This paper employs a multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model of China, CHINAGEM, with highly disaggregated transport sectors to examine the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on China?s transport sectors and reveal the impact mechanisms of the pandemic shocks with the decomposition analysis approach. This study suggests that, first, multiple shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic to transport sectors are specified, including the supply-side shocks that raised the protective cost and reduced the production efficiency of transport sectors, and the demand-side shocks that reduced the demand of households and production sectors for transportation. Second, the outputs of all transport sectors in China have been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and passenger transport sectors have larger output decreases than freight transport sectors. While the outputs of freight transport sectors are expected to decline by 1.03?2.85%, the outputs of passenger transport sectors would decline by 3.08?11.44%. Third, with the decomposition analysis, the impacts of various exogenous shocks are quite different, while the changes in the output of different transport sectors are dominated by different exogenous shocks. Lastly, while the supply-side shocks of the pandemic would drive output decline in railway, waterway, and aviation transport sectors, the demand-side shocks would drive so in the road, pipeline, and other transport sectors. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has negative impacts on the output of most non-transport sectors and the macro-economy in China. Three policy implications are recommended to mitigate the damages caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to the transport sectors.
机译：作为暴露于Covid-19大流行的最脆弱部门之一，运输部门受到严重影响。然而，不充分了解传输部门传染病的冲击和影响机制。本文采用了中国多部门可增加的普通均衡模型，唐易斯，具有高度分列的运输部门，以研究Covid-19大流行对中国的运输部门的影响，并揭示了大流行冲击的影响机制与分解分析方法。本研究表明，首先，规定了Covid-19大流行扇区的多次冲击，包括提高保护成本并降低运输部门的生产效率，以及降低的需求侧冲击的供应侧冲击运输家庭和生产部门的需求。其次，中国所有运输部门的产量受到Covid-19流行病的严重影响，客运部门的产量大于货运运输部门。虽然货运部门的产出预计将下降1.03？2.85％，客运部门的产出将下降3.08？11.44％。第三，随着分解分析，各种外源冲击的影响是完全不同的，而不同运输部门的输出的变化是由不同的外源冲击的主导。最后，虽然流行病的供应侧冲击会推动铁路，水路和航空运输部门的产出下降，但需求侧冲击将在道路，管道和其他运输部门开车。此外，Covid-19大流行对大多数非运输部门和中国宏观经济的产量产生负面影响。建议三项政策影响减轻由Covid-19流行对运输部门引起的损害。

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  • 来源
    《Transport policy》 |2021年第3期|103-115|共13页
  • 作者

    Cui Qi; He Ling; Liu Yu; Zheng Yanting; Wei Wei; Yang Bo; Zhou Meifang;

  • 作者单位

    Beijing Normal Univ Sch Econ & Resource Management Beijing Key Lab Study Scitech Strategy Urban Gree Beijing 100875 Peoples R China;

    Beijing Normal Univ Sch Econ & Resource Management Beijing Key Lab Study Scitech Strategy Urban Gree Beijing 100875 Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Sci Inst Sci & Dev Beijing 100190 Peoples R China|Univ Chinese Acad Sci Sch Publ Policy & Management Beijing 100049 Peoples R China;

    Beijing Normal Univ Sch Econ & Resource Management Beijing Key Lab Study Scitech Strategy Urban Gree Beijing 100875 Peoples R China;

    Management Acad China Cooperat Beijing 100028 Peoples R China|Zhengzhou Univ Aeronaut Sch Econ & Trade Zhengzhou Henan Peoples R China;

    Beijing Technol & Business Univ Sch Econ Beijing 100048 Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    COVID-19 pandemic; Transport sectors; CGE model; Decomposition analysis; China;

    机译：Covid-19大流行;运输部门;CGE模型;分解分析;中国;

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