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Challenges in credibly estimating the travel demand effects of mobility services

机译：可信地估算移动服务的旅行需求影响的挑战

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摘要

Mobility services including carsharing and transportation network company (TNC) services have been growing rapidly in North America and around the world. Measuring the effects of these services on traveler behavior is challenging because the results of any such analysis are sensitive to how (1) outcomes are measured and (2) counterfactuals are constructed. The lack of good control groups or randomization of assignment leaves lingering uncertainty over the contributions of selection bias and treatment effects to reported differences in travel behavior between users and non-users of these services. This paper reports on two approaches for measuring the effects of mobility service adoption on travel rate and car ownership. We first tried a pretest-posttest randomized encouragement experiment to deal with the shortcomings of poor control groups. Then, we turned to the approach of self-reported effects based on hypothetical controls to investigate whether variations in survey question presentation could influence respondents? answers and thus lead to changes in estimated effects. The data to conduct this study came from two sources: a panel survey administered by the authors at the University of Washington (UW), and a survey by Populus Technologies, Inc. (Populus). Various statistical tests were applied to analyze the data, and the results highlight the pivotal role that the research design plays in influencing the outcomes, and manifest the fundamental challenge of establishing credible estimates of the causal effects of adopting mobility services on travel behaviors.
机译：移动服务，包括汽车共用运输网络公司（TNC）服务已经在北美和世界各地迅速发展。测量上旅行者行为这些服务的效果是具有挑战性，因为任何这样的分析的结果是如何（1）的结果被测量，并且（2）反事实被构造敏感。缺乏良好的对照组或分配叶萦绕在选择偏差和治疗效果的在用户和这些服务的非用户之间的交通行为差异报告的贡献不确定性的随机化。本文对测量移动服务通过关于移动速度和汽车保有量的影响两种方法的报告。我们首先尝试了前测，后测随机鼓励实验对付贫穷对照组的缺点。然后，我们转向基于假想控制自我报告的影响的办法来调查调查问题提示的变化是否会影响受访者？答案，从而导致估计影响的变化。小组调查在华盛顿大学（UW）由作者管理，并通过胡杨Technologies公司（胡杨）的一项调查显示：进​​行这项研究的数据来自两个方面来了。各种统计测试，用于分析数据，并将结果突显的关键作用，该研究设计在影响结果的剧本，并设立明显的对出行行为采取移动服务的因果效果可靠估算的根本挑战。

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