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Asymmetric effects of exchange rate and income changes on maritime freight flows between Japan and the US

机译：汇率和收入变化对日美之间海上货运流量的不对称影响

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Past studies have generally used the perfect reversibility of exchange rate and income changes on trade flows, assuming that the impacts of a positive change in exchange rate (income) are of the same magnitude and move in the opposite direction of the effects of a negative change. To date, no empirical evidence has been found to support the potential asymmetric effects of exchange rate and income on maritime trade flows. The objective of this paper is to explore the long-run exchange rate and income asymmetries in bilateral maritime freight flows between Japan and the US. We use both aggregate and disaggregate industry data from January 2003 to July 2016 in a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. From the nonlinear ARDL models, the exchange rate is found to be an important factor affecting the maritime freight flows in exporting and importing industries in Japan. This conclusion differs from the findings from the linear ARDL models in which exchange rate is insignificant in the majority of cases. More importantly, we find empirical evidence of the asymmetric effects of exchange rate and income on the bilateral maritime freight flows at both aggregate and disaggregate levels. This suggests that using the perfectly reversible (linear) elasticities of demand could mislead the effects of exchange rate and income changes and result in biased estimation. At the disaggregate level, the asymmetric effects of exchange rate and income changes tend to vary across industries.
机译：过去的研究通常使用汇率和收入变化对贸易流量的完美可逆性，假设汇率（收入）正变化的影响幅度相同，而负变化的影响方向相反。迄今为止，还没有发现经验证据支持汇率和收入对海洋贸易流量的潜在不对称影响。本文的目的是探讨日美双边海上货运中的长期汇率和收入不对称性。我们在非线性自回归分布滞后（ARDL）框架中使用2003年1月至2016年7月的汇总和分解行业数据。从非线性ARDL模型中，发现汇率是影响日本进出口行业中海上货运流量的重要因素。该结论与线性ARDL模型的发现不同，后者在大多数情况下汇率无关紧要。更重要的是，我们发现经验性证据表明，汇率和收入对总和分类水平上的双边海上货运流量的不对称影响。这表明，使用需求的完全可逆（线性）弹性可能会误导汇率和收入变化的影响，并导致估计偏差。从分类的角度来看，汇率和收入变化的不对称影响往往在各个行业之间有所不同。

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