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Modeling heterogeneous vehicle ownership in China: A case study based on the Chinese national survey

机译：中国的异构车辆所有权建模：基于中国国家调查的案例研究

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摘要

Understanding the heterogeneity of vehicle ownership decisions in China is vital to accurately estimating the rate of vehicle ownership in its various provinces. In this study, we employ a latent class model to investigate the heterogeneity of vehicle ownership behavior, based on the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data. The results show that the households within the CHFS data can be categorized into two classes, and that households within each class rank the importance of socioeconomic variables in significantly different ways. For instance, with regards to deciding to own a vehicle, the households in Class 1 (the income-based class) rank household income as the most important factor, while the households in Class 2 (the comprehensive considerations class) rank household income, household status, and household size as being almost equally important. Further, the model coefficients also reveal the evolution of vehicle ownership in the near future, and how changes in macroeconomic variables may influence household vehicle ownership decisions. In application, the results can be used to assist policy makers in designing policies that control excessively high levels of vehicle ownership; they can also be used to help auto manufacturers pinpoint specific vehicle models to be sold in different regions of China, so as to drive the highest possible profits.
机译：了解中国车辆拥有权决策的异质性对于准确估算各个省份的车辆拥有率至关重要。在这项研究中，我们基于中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据，采用了一个潜在类模型来研究车辆拥有行为的异质性。结果表明，CHFS数据中的家庭可以分为两类，并且每一类中的家庭以明显不同的方式对社会经济变量的重要性进行排名。例如，在决定拥有汽车方面，第一类家庭（基于收入的类别）将家庭收入列为最重要的因素，而第二类家庭（综合考虑类别）将家庭收入列为最重要的因素。地位和家庭人数几乎同等重要。此外，模型系数还揭示了不久的将来车辆拥有量的演变，以及宏观经济变量的变化如何影响家用车辆拥有量的决策。在应用中，该结果可用于帮助决策者设计控制过高水平的车辆拥有量的政策；它们还可以用于帮助汽车制造商确定要在中国不同地区销售的特定车型，从而获得最大的利润。

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  • 来源
    《Transport policy》 |2017年第2期|11-20|共10页
  • 作者

    Zhang Zhao; Jin Wen; Jiang Hai; Xie Qianyan; Shen Wei; Han Weijian;

  • 作者单位

    Beihang Univ, Sch Transportat Sci & Engn, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China|Tsinghua Univ, Dept Ind Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

    Tsinghua Univ, Dept Ind Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

    Tsinghua Univ, Dept Ind Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

    Ford Motor Co, Res & Adv Engn, 2101 Village Rd MD-2149, Dearborn, MI 48121 USA;

    Ford Motor Co, Asia Pacific Res, Unit 4,Tower C,Beijing Yintai Ctr, Beijing 100022, Peoples R China;

    Ford Motor Co, Res & Adv Engn, 2101 Village Rd MD-2149, Dearborn, MI 48121 USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Vehicle ownership; Latent class model; Socioeconomic characteristics; Geographic location; GDP per capita;

    机译：车辆拥有权;潜在阶级模型;社会经济特征;地理位置;人均GDP;

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