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首页> 外文期刊>Transport policy >What led to the establishment of a rail-oriented city? Determinants of urban rail supply in Tokyo, Japan, 1950-2010
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What led to the establishment of a rail-oriented city? Determinants of urban rail supply in Tokyo, Japan, 1950-2010

机译：是什么导致了铁路城市的建立？ 1950-2010年日本东京的城市轨道交通决定因素

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This study analyzed the determinants of urban rail supply in Tokyo using time series data for the postwar period. It modeled urban rail supply, measured by vehicle-kilometers of the urban rail service, incorporating demand for urban rail travel, urban rail travel speed, conditions of alternative transportation modes, land use patterns, and socioeconomic conditions as explanatory variables. The model adopted a lag structure for urban rail supply in line with the planning horizon. It was then estimated using the Bayesian model averaging approach, which provided robust estimation results based on our multivariate time series data. The results showed that investments in the urban rail network in Tokyo were primarily driven by the increase in demand for urban rail travel. In effect, demand growth in the Tokyo rail network has clearly translated to supply growth through the planning process; this induced supply has worked as one of the critical components in the establishment of a rail-oriented transportation system in Tokyo. Additionally, the negative effects of bus/tram travel speed on urban rail supply were estimated.
机译：这项研究使用战后时期的时间序列数据分析了东京城市轨道交通的决定因素。它以城市轨道交通的车辆里程为单位对城市轨道交通供给进行了建模，将对城市轨道交通的需求，城市轨道交通的速度，替代交通方式的条件，土地利用方式以及社会经济条件作为解释变量。该模型采用了与规划范围相一致的城市铁路供应滞后结构。然后使用贝叶斯模型平均方法进行估计，该方法基于我们的多元时间序列数据提供了可靠的估计结果。结果表明，东京城市轨道交通网的投资主要是由于城市轨道交通需求的增长所致。实际上，东京铁路网的需求增长已明确地转化为通过计划过程的供应增长；这种诱导的供应已成为东京建立铁路运输系统的关键组成部分之一。此外，估计了公共汽车/电车行驶速度对城市铁路供应的负面影响。

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