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Cost-Benefit Analysis of policies for the development of electric vehicles in Germany: Methods and results

机译：德国电动汽车发展政策的成本效益分析：方法和结果

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摘要

Policies toward the diffusion of electric vehicles received a lot of attention in the latest years in many developed countries. Yet the real costs and benefits for society as a whole of this technology have received limited attention from economists. In this context, the present paper proposes a thorough cost benefit analysis of policies for the development of electric vehicles in Germany. It also reviews the main existing models of EV diffusion to shed light on the modeling issues underlying the evaluation of EV policies. Elaborating on a comprehensive simulation model, it shows that the potential for EV is fairly limited while there is more room for intermediate technologies like Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles and Range Extenders. The paper concludes that most of the investigated policies have a negative benefit-cost balance. These results are strongly driven by the regulatory framework in which EV diffusion could take place and especially the Car Average Fleet Emission regulation EU 443.
机译：近年来，电动汽车普及政策在许多发达国家引起了广泛关注。然而，作为一项整体技术，社会的实际成本和收益受到经济学家的有限关注。在此背景下，本文提出了对德国电动汽车发展政策的全面成本收益分析。它还回顾了现有的主要电动汽车扩散模型，以阐明电动汽车政策评估所依据的建模问题。详细阐述了一个综合的仿真模型，结果表明，电动汽车的潜力相当有限，而插电式混合动力汽车和增程器等中间技术还有更大的空间。本文的结论是，大多数被调查的政策都存在负的成本成本平衡。这些结果在很大程度上取决于可能发生电动汽车扩散的法规框架，尤其是《汽车平均车队排放法规》 EU 443。

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