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Using values of travel time savings for toll roads: avoiding some common errors

机译：使用节省时间的收费公路值：避免一些常见错误

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There are many empirical studies on the estimation of values of travel time savings (VTTS), with varying degrees of rigour and relevance, mostly based on the observation that travellers are prepared to spend money to save time. These values are applied to both forecasting the effects of speed changes on behaviour and also for estimation of the social benefit of such savings, in order to calculate value for money of spending public funds on transport investments. The sources of empirical information on such values are not always compatible with the models and software within which the results are used. In recent years, an increasingly important application has been to calculate the potential revenue from tolled roads, and networks with user charges, which offer high speeds at a higher price: here the important issue is not hypothetical willingness to pay, but the actual money that will be handed over. This changes the focus from hypothetical to bankable VTTS. It is shown that some common practices risk substantial error in calculation, affecting the sharing of risk between public and private sectors. A particularly important case is where an average value is taken as representative of a skewed distribution of values-in these circumstances there will be a tendency to overestimate the revenue, and underestimate the traffic impact, of a charge, because for a given mean VTTS, there will be a smaller number of individuals who are prepared to pay the toll. To correct this bias, the main tasks are: establishing a relevant set of trip-purpose specific VTTS distributions and selecting a way of handling the distributions in patronage forecasting, growing VTTS through time, treating the VTTS of car passengers, and establishing an appropriate set of rules for converting disaggregated (or heterogeneous) components of travel time values into a single trip value appropriate to the project being evaluated. Other related problems of the use of values of time relate to the assumption that these values grow in proportion to income, and the extent to which they are confounded with other effects. One troublesome feature is that most, and perhaps all, of the problems discussed tend to produce biases in the same direction, namely to risk overestimating revenue, in the short and long run. This produces a tendency to appraisal bias, which can distort the contractual confidence between partners. Overall, it is likely that current assumptions are underestimating the degree of toll-avoiding behaviour, and overestimating the financial viability of projects.
机译：关于旅行时间节省（VTTS）的价值的估计有许多实证研究，其严格程度和相关性各不相同，主要是基于以下事实：旅行者准备花钱节省时间。这些值既可用于预测速度变化对行为的影响，也可用于估算此类储蓄的社会效益，以便计算将公共资金用于交通投资的物有所值。关于这些值的经验信息的来源并不总是与使用结果的模型和软件兼容。近年来，越来越重要的应用是计算收费公路和收费用户网络的潜在收入，这些收费道路和网络以较高的价格提供高速服务：这里的重要问题不是假设的支付意愿，而是实际的支付费用。将被移交。这将重点从假设的VTTS变为可银行的VTTS。结果表明，一些常见的做法可能会在计算中造成重大错误，从而影响公共部门和私营部门之间的风险分担。一个特别重要的情况是，将平均值作为偏斜的值分布的代表-在这种情况下，由于对给定的平均VTTS而言，倾向于高估收费收入，并低估流量的影响，愿意支付通行费的人数将会减少。为了纠正这种偏见，主要任务是：建立一组针对旅行目的的特定VTTS分布，并选择一种在乘客量预测中处理分布的方法，随着时间的推移增长VTTS，处理汽车乘客的VTTS，并建立适当的集合将旅行时间值的分解的（或不同的）组成部分转换为适合所评估项目的单个旅行值的规则。时间价值使用的其他相关问题与以下假设有关：这些价值与收入成正比增长，以及它们与其他影响混淆的程度。一个令人烦恼的特征是，大多数（也许是全部）所讨论的问题往往会在同一方向上产生偏差，即在短期和长期内都有可能高估收入。这会产生评估偏见的趋势，从而可能扭曲合作伙伴之间的合同信心。总体而言，当前的假设可能会低估避免收费的行为的程度，并高估项目的财务可行性。

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