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Identification of Pedestrian Risk Factors Using Negative Binomial Model

机译：基于负二项式模型的行人危险因素识别

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摘要

Pedestrian deaths causing from road traffic crashes are a foremost and rising problem in urban India. However, pedestriansafety assessment using precise statistical analysis and modeling techniques is still in an early stage in urban India owingto the absence of crash data collection and maintenance, difficulties in obtaining appropriate road inventory data and trafficvolume data. The present study composes an effort to fill the research gap by analyzing past crash data (2011–2016) collectedfrom Kolkata police and identifies the hazardous corridors and intersections posing the high risk to the pedestrian.Consequently, to develop an understanding of the risk factors associated with pedestrian fatalities, a set of fixed-parameterNegative Binomial models is established. In these models, several attempts are made to identify the risk factors linked totraffic exposures and operational parameters, roadway characteristics and infrastructure, land use and road network planning.Based on the statistical analyses carried out in this study, there is evidence that factors such as approaching speed ofthe vehicles, vehicular traffic and pedestrian volume of the intersection and their interaction, disorderly movement of traffic(i.e., overtaking tendency of the vehicles), the presence of specific land-use type (i.e., commercial hubs), inefficient planningand design (i.e., inaccessibility of the pedestrian crosswalk, the absence of pedestrian signal head, etc.), the presenceof wider carriageway, the encroachment of the footpath, restricted visibility (i.e., inadequate sight distance) are found to bemajor risk factors with regards to the fatal pedestrian crash occurrence in Kolkata City, India.
机译：在印度城市，道路交通事故造成的行人死亡是最严重的问题。但是，由于缺乏事故数据的收集和维护，难以获得适当的道路清单数据和交通量数据，使用精确的统计分析和建模技术进行行人安全评估仍处于印度城市的早期阶段。本研究旨在通过分析从加尔各答警察局收集的过去碰撞数据（2011-2016年）来弥补研究空白​​，并确定对行人构成高风险的危险走廊和十字路口。因此，可以加深对相关危险因素的理解在行人死亡的情况下，建立了一组固定参数负二项式模型。在这些模型中，我们进行了几次尝试来确定与交通暴露和运营参数，道路特征和基础设施，土地利用和道路网络规划相关的风险因素。基于这项研究的统计分析，有证据表明诸如接近车辆的速度，交叉路口的车辆交通量和行人通行量及其相互作用，交通的无序移动（即车辆的超车趋势），特定土地利用类型（即商业枢纽）的存在，低效的规划和设计（例如，人行横道无法通行，没有行人信号灯头等），行人通道更宽，行人路受到侵犯，能见度受到限制（即视距不足）是造成致命危险的主要危险因素印度加尔各答市的行人交通事故发生。

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