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首页> 外文期刊>Transportation planning and technology >Predicting the safety impact of a speed limit increase using condition-based multivariate Poisson lognormal regression
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Predicting the safety impact of a speed limit increase using condition-based multivariate Poisson lognormal regression

机译：使用基于条件的多元泊松对数正态回归预测限速增加的安全影响

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摘要

Speed limit changes are considered to lead to proportional changes in the number and severity of crashes. To predict the impact of a speed limit alteration, it is necessary to define a relationship between crashes and speed on a road network. This paper examines the relationship of crashes with speed, as well as with other traffic and geometric variables, on the UK motorways in order to estimate the impact of a potential speed limit increase from 70 to 80mph on traffic safety. Full Bayesian multivariate Poisson lognormal regression models are applied to a data set aggregated using the condition-based approach for crashes by vehicle (i.e. single vehicle and multiple vehicle) and severity (i.e. fatal or serious and slight). The results show that single-vehicle crashes of all severities and fatal or serious injury crashes involving multiple vehicles increase at higher speed conditions and particularly when these are combined with lower volumes. Slight injury multiple-vehicle crashes are found not to be related to high speeds, but instead with congested traffic. Using the speed elasticity values derived from the models, the predicted annual increase in crashes after a speed limit increase on the UK motorway is found to be 6.2-12.1% for fatal or serious injury crashes and 1.3-2.7% for slight injury, or else up to 167 more crashes.
机译：速度限制的变化被认为导致了事故数量和严重程度的成比例变化。为了预测限速变更的影响，有必要在道路网络上定义碰撞与速度之间的关系。本文研究了英国高速公路上的撞车事故与速度以及其他交通和几何变量的关系，以估计潜在的限速从70英里/小时提高到80英里/小时对交通安全的影响。将完全贝叶斯多元Poisson对数正态回归模型应用于使用基于条件的方法汇总的数据集，以解决车辆（即单车和多车）的车祸和严重性（即致命或严重和轻微）的情况。结果表明，在较高的速度条件下，尤其是当这些车辆与较小的车辆相结合时，所有严重程度的单车碰撞以及涉及多辆车的致命或严重伤害事故都增加了。发现轻伤的多车祸与高速无关，而与交通拥堵有关。使用从模型得出的速度弹性值，发现在英国高速公路上增加限速后，致命或严重伤害事故的预计每年事故增加为6.2-12.1％，轻伤为1.3-2.7％，否则多达167次崩溃。

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