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Structural equation modeling for national travel demand: an examination of the relationships between communication modes

机译：国家旅行需求的结构方程模型：沟通模式之间关系的考察

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摘要

This paper examines the relationships among different transportation modes, and between transportation and telecommunications, by applying the structural equation modeling (SEM) technique. For this purpose, we collected and compiled time series data on national travel demand, and socioeconomic and telecommunications conditions in Taiwan, and built national travel demand models using SEM. The estimation results show that the relationship between telecommunications and transportation demand (either car ownership or public transportation) is more complementary than substitutional. Moreover, car ownership is a type of inelastic necessity good, and its relationship with public transportation is more substitutional than complementary. Finally, among the three public transportation modes - rail, bus and domestic air - it is found that air is weakest in terms of competitive power. From the viewpoint of long-term forecasting trends, the bus holds its competitive power in comparison with other public transportation modes and would not be replaced in the future.
机译：本文通过应用结构方程模型（SEM）技术研究了不同运输方式之间以及运输与电信之间的关系。为此，我们收集并汇编了有关台湾国家出行需求，社会经济和电信状况的时间序列数据，并使用SEM建立了国家出行需求模型。估计结果表明，电信与交通需求（汽车拥有量或公共交通）之间的关系比替代关系更互补。此外，拥有汽车是一种非弹性的必需品，它与公共交通的关系更具替代性，而不是互补性。最后，在三种公共交通方式（铁路，公共汽车和家庭空中交通）中，发现空中交通在竞争能力方面最弱。从长期预测趋势的角度来看，公交车具有与其他公共交通模式相比所具有的竞争力，并且将来将不会被替换。

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