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Decision tree method for modeling travel mode switching in a dynamic behavioral process

机译:动态行为过程中出行方式切换建模的决策树方法

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摘要

As road congestion is exacerbated in most metropolitan areas, many transportation policies and planning strategies try to nudge travelers to switch to other more sustainable modes of transportation. In order to better analyze these strategies, there is a need to accurately model travelers' mode-switching behavior. In this paper, a popular artificial intelligence approach, the decision tree (DT), is used to explore the underlying rules of travelers' switching decisions between two modes under a proposed framework of dynamic mode searching and switching. An effective and practical method for a mode-switching DT induction is proposed. A loss matrix is introduced to handle class imbalance issues. Important factors and their relative importance are analyzed through information gains and feature selections. Household Travel Survey data are used to implement and validate the proposed DT induction method. Through comparison with logit models, the improved prediction ability of the DT models is demonstrated.
机译:随着大多数城市地区道路拥堵的加剧,许多交通政策和规划策略试图促使旅行者转向其他更可持续的交通方式。为了更好地分析这些策略,需要对旅行者的模式切换行为进行准确建模。在本文中,一种流行的人工智能方法,决策树(DT),用于在提出的动态模式搜索和切换框架下探索旅行者在两种模式之间进行切换决策的基本规则。提出了一种有效而实用的模式切换DT感应方法。引入了一个损失矩阵来处理类不平衡问题。重要因素及其相对重要性通过信息获取和功能选择进行了分析。家庭旅行调查数据用于实施和验证建议的DT归纳方法。通过与logit模型比较,证明了DT模型的改进的预测能力。

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