Forecasting automobile sales: the Pena-Box approach

Wei-Chun Hsu; Lin Lin; Chen-Yu Li

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Forecasting automobile sales: the Pena-Box approach

机译：预测汽车销量：Pena-Box方法

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摘要

As a response to growing concerns regarding the call for clean energy and its impact on future automobile sales, this study uses a classical factor model and the Pena-Box model to examine the contemporary and time-varying relationships of different brands/ models of cars in Taiwan between 2003 and 2007. In this paper, we demonstrate the complementary characteristics of these two analytical and forecasting methods. The results confirm that these two models can derive equally important but different information from the same time series data. Furthermore, the models are a useful marketing tool for discovering the current preferences of car purchasers, as well as their preference changes over time.

机译：为了回应对清洁能源的呼吁及其对未来汽车销售的影响的日益增长的关注，本研究使用经典因子模型和Pena-Box模型来考察不同品牌/车型在当代的时变关系。台湾在2003年至2007年之间。在本文中，我们展示了这两种分析和预测方法的互补性。结果证实这两个模型可以从相同的时间序列数据中得出同等重要但不同的信息。此外，这些模型是用于发现购车者当前偏好及其随时间变化的有用的营销工具。

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来源
《Transportation planning and technology》 |2014年第6期|568-580|共13页
作者
Wei-Chun Hsu; Lin Lin; Chen-Yu Li;
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作者单位

Department of International Business Studies, National Chi-Nan University, 1 University Rd., Puli, Vantou Hsien, Taiwan 545, Republic of China;

Department of Banking and Finance, National Chi-Nan University, 1 University Rd., Puli, Nantou Hsien, Taiwan 545, Republic of China;

Institute of Biomedical Science, Academia Sinica, 128 Academia Rd., Sec. 2, Nankang, Taipei 115, Taiwan, Republic of China;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
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关键词
automobile sales; common factor; Pena-Box model; factor analysis;

机译：汽车销售;公约数;Pena-Box模型;因子分析;

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7. Chinese automobile sales forecasting using economic indicators and typical domestic brand automobile sales data: A method based on econometric model [O] . Junjie Gao, Yanan Xie, Xiaomin Cui, 2018

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Forecasting automobile sales: the Pena-Box approach

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