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Evaluation of diversion strategies using dynamic traffic assignment

机译：使用动态流量分配评估转移策略

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摘要

A framework for the evaluation of the effectiveness of traffic diversion strategies for non-recurrent congestion, based on predictive guidance and using dynamic traffic assignment, is presented. Predictive guidance is based on a short-term prediction of traffic conditions, incorporating user reaction to information and guidance. A case study of the Lower Westchester County network in New York State, using DynaMIT-P, is presented to illustrate the application of the framework. DynaMIT-P is capable of evaluating diversion strategies based on predicted conditions, which take into account drivers' response to traffic information. The case study simulates the operations of predictive variable message signs positioned in strategic locations. DynaMIT-P is calibrated for the study network and used to establish base conditions for two incident scenarios in the absence of advanced traveller information systems. The effectiveness of predictive diversion strategies is evaluated (using rigorous statistical tests) by comparing traffic conditions with and without diversion strategies. The empirical findings suggest that incident diversion strategies based on predictive guidance result in travel time savings and increased travel time reliability.
机译：提出了一种基于预测性指导并利用动态交通分配评估非经常性交通转向策略有效性的框架。预测性指导基于交通状况的短期预测，将用户对信息和指导的反应纳入考虑范围。提出了一个使用DynaMIT-P的纽约州下韦斯特切斯特县网络的案例研究，以说明该框架的应用。 DynaMIT-P能够基于预测条件评估转向策略，该条件考虑了驾驶员对交通信息的反应。案例研究模拟了位于战略位置的预测变量消息符号的操作。 DynaMIT-P已针对研究网络进行了校准，并用于在没有高级旅行者信息系统的情况下为两个事故场景建立基本条件。通过比较有无转移策略的交通状况，评估（采用严格的统计检验）预测转移策略的有效性。实证结果表明，基于预测性指导的事件转移策略可节省旅行时间并提高旅行时间的可靠性。

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