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Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure

机译:城市轨道交通和其他基础设施的成本超支和需求短缺

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摘要

Risk, including economic risk, is increasingly a concern for public policy and management. The possibility of dealing effectively with risk is hampered, however, by lack of a sound empirical basis for risk assessment and management. This article demonstrates the general point for cost and demand risks in urban rail projects. The article presents empirical evidence that allow valid economic risk assessment and management of urban rail projects, including benchmarking of individual or groups of projects. Benchmarking of the Copenhagen Metro is presented as a case in point. The approach developed is proposed as a model for other types of policies and projects in order to improve economic and financial risk assessment and management in policy and planning.
机译:包括经济风险在内的风险日益成为公共政策和管理的关注点。但是,由于缺乏可靠的风险评估和管理的经验基础,有效应对风险的可能性受到了限制。本文演示了城市轨道交通项目中成本和需求风险的总体观点。本文提供了经验证据,可以对城市铁路项目进行有效的经济风险评估和管理,包括对单个项目或项目组进行基准测试。哥本哈根地铁的基准测试就是一个很好的例子。提议将开发的方法作为其他类型的政策和项目的模型,以改善政策和规划中的经济和金融风险评估与管理。

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