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首页> 外文期刊>Transportation Research Record >Spatial Economic Model for Forecasting the Percentage Splits of External Trips on Highways Approaching Small Communities
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Spatial Economic Model for Forecasting the Percentage Splits of External Trips on Highways Approaching Small Communities

机译：预测接近小社区的高速公路上的外部出行百分比分割的空间经济模型

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摘要

The main difficulty in forecasting traffic volumes in small urban communities is identifying the amount and destination of the external traffic. Three methods exist for determining the percentage of external traffic destined for the study community (external-internal trips) or through the study community (external-external trips): a comprehensive origin-destination study, a cordon line origin-destination study, and the use of regression equations. This paper examines the possibility of the use of an alternative technique, based on a spatial economic model, to determine the traffic distribution. The project uses an economic model, which includes surrounding community factors, to determine the trip rates for three communities within Alabama and compares the results obtained from this model with the results given by a commonly accepted regression equation and a recently completed cordon line origin-destination study performed by using video surveillance. It is demonstrated that the economic model performs well for the case study cities, and this model is recommended for use in providing estimates that incorporate a community's economic relationship to neighboring towns for traffic forecasting.
机译：预测小型城市社区交通量的主要困难是确定外部交通量和目的地。有三种方法可确定发往研究社区（外部-内部旅行）或通过研究社区（外部-外部旅行）的外部流量的百分比：全面的起源-目的地研究，警戒线起源-目的地研究和使用回归方程。本文研究了基于空间经济模型来使用替代技术来确定交通量分布的可能性。该项目使用一种经济模型，其中包括周围的社区因素，以确定阿拉巴马州三个社区的出行率，并将从该模型中获得的结果与公认的回归方程和最近完成的警戒线起点-目的地给出的结果进行比较。使用视频监控进行的研究。事实证明，该经济模型在案例研究城市中表现良好，建议将该模型用于提供将社区与邻镇的经济关系纳入交通预测的估计。

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