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首页> 外文期刊>Transportation Research Record >Day-to-Day Evolution of Network Flows Under Route-Choice Dynamics in Commuter Decisions
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Day-to-Day Evolution of Network Flows Under Route-Choice Dynamics in Commuter Decisions

机译：通勤决策中路线选择动态下网络流量的日常演变

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摘要

The day-to-day dynamics of commuter decisions on urban traffic networks induced by route-choice dynamics is investigated. More specifically, this investigation analyzes the stability and reliability of system performance due to route-choice dynamics under real-time information, relaxing key restrictions associated with user equilibrium models. A simulation-based framework is developed to analyze day-to-day dynamics by integrating an empirically calibrated model of route-choice decisions with a dynamic network assignment model. Computational experiments are used to investigate the effect of certain experimental factors—recurrent network congestion level, market penetration, nature of information, and frequency of information updates—on network performance stability and reliability. The findings provide evidence of considerable day-to-day variations and stochasticity in network flows and performance, even when departure-time decisions and the origin-destination matrix are assumed to be fixed. The results indicate that (a) network performance may deviate significantly from equilibrium because of route-choice decisions under information; (b) within-day route choices have a significant effect on day-to-day network flow evolution; (c) user equilibrium path flows may not be reached or may not be stable when uncoordinated route-choice decisions are made under real-time information; (d) route-choice decisions do not exhibit convergence to an equilibrium, although the switching rate may be near steady-state conditions; (e) advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) information strategies can affect both within-day and day-to-day dynamics; and (f) some information strategies can lead to improved reliability and stability but at the expense of longer trip times. The results indicate that the trade-off between trip time performance and stability must be considered in network analysis and design. These results have important implications for the design of traffic control strategies, more-effective ATIS implementation guidelines, and incident management strategies.
机译：研究了由路线选择动力学引起的通勤决策对城市交通网络的日常动态。更具体地说，此研究分析了实时信息下路由选择动态所导致的系统性能的稳定性和可靠性，从而放松了与用户均衡模型相关的关键限制。通过基于经验的校准路线选择决策模型与动态网络分配模型相集成，开发了基于仿真的框架来分析日常动态。计算实验用于研究某些实验因素（经常出现的网络拥塞程度，市场渗透，信息的性质以及信息更新的频率）对网络性能稳定性和可靠性的影响。这些发现为网络流量和性能的日常变化和随机性提供了证据，即使假设出发时间的决定和始发地-目的地矩阵都是固定的。结果表明：（a）由于信息下的路由选择决策，网络性能可能会明显偏离均衡； （b）每天的路线选择对日常网络流量的演变有重大影响； （c）在实时信息下做出不协调的路线选择决策时，可能无法达到用户平衡的路径流量，或者可能不稳定。 （d）尽管转换率可能接近稳态条件，但路线选择决策并没有表现出趋于平衡的趋势； （e）先进的旅行者信息系统（ATIS）信息策略可以影响每日动态和日常动态； （f）一些信息策略可以提高可靠性和稳定性，但要花费更长的行程时间。结果表明，在网络分析和设计中必须考虑跳闸时间性能与稳定性之间的权衡。这些结果对交通控制策略，更有效的ATIS实施准则和事件管理策略的设计具有重要意义。

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