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Risk preference and adoption of autonomous vehicles

机译：风险偏好和自动驾驶汽车的采用

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Despite an increasingly large body of research that focuses on the potential demand for autonomous vehicles (AVs), risk preference is an understudied factor. Given that AV technology and how it will interact with the evolving mobility system are highly risky, this lack of research on risk preference is a critical gap in current understanding. By using a stated preference survey of 1142 individuals from Singapore, this study achieves three objectives. First, it develops one measure of psychometric risk preference and operationalizes prospect theory to create two economic risk preference parameters. Second, it examines how these psychometric and economic risk preferences are associated with socioeconomic variables. Third, it analyzes how risk preference influences the mode choice of AVs. The study finds that risk preference parameters are significantly associated with socioeconomic variables: the elderly, poor, females, and unemployed Singaporeans appear more risk-averse and tend to overestimate small probabilities of losses. Furthermore, all three risk preference parameters contribute to the prediction of AV adoption. These modeling results have policy implications at both the aggregate and disaggregate levels. At the aggregate level, people misperceive probabilities, are overall risk-averse, and hence under-consume AVs relative to the social optimum. At the disaggregate level, the elderly, poor, female, and unemployed are more risk-averse and thus are less likely to adopt AVs. These results suggest that it might be valuable for governments to implement policies to encourage technology adoption, particularly for disadvantaged social groups, although caution remains due to uncertainty in the long-term effects of AVs. Individualized risk preference parameters could also inform how to design regulations, safety standards, and liability allocations of AVs since many regulations are essentially mechanisms for risk allocation. One limitation of the paper is that risk preference is measured and modeled only as individual-specific but not alternative-specific variables. Future studies should examine the relationship between the multiple components of risk preference and the multiple risky aspects of AVs.
机译：尽管有越来越多的研究集中在对自动驾驶汽车（AV）的潜在需求上，但是风险偏好仍然是一个未被充分研究的因素。鉴于视音频技术及其将如何与不断发展的移动系统相互作用具有很高的风险，因此缺乏对风险偏好的研究是当前理解的一个关键空白。通过对来自新加坡的1142名个人进行明确的偏好调查，该研究实现了三个目标。首先，它开发了一种心理测度风险偏好的度量方法，并运用前景理论来创建两个经济风险偏好参数。其次，它研究了这些心理和经济风险偏好与社会经济变量之间的关系。第三，分析了风险偏好如何影响AV的模式选择。研究发现，风险偏好参数与社会经济变量显着相关：老年人，穷人，女性和失业的新加坡人似乎更倾向于规避风险，并倾向于高估损失的小概率。此外，所有三个风险偏好参数都有助于预测AV的采用。这些建模结果在总体和分解层次上都有政策含义。从总体上看，人们误解了概率，总体上规避风险，因此相对于社会最优而言，AV消费不足。从总体上看，老年人，贫困者，女性和失业者更倾向于规避风险，因此不太可能采用房颤。这些结果表明，政府实施鼓励技术采用的政策可能是有价值的，特别是对处境不利的社会群体而言，尽管由于视音频的长期影响尚不确定，因此仍需谨慎。个性化的风险偏好参数还可以指导如何设计AV的法规，安全标准和责任分配，因为许多法规本质上是风险分配的机制。本文的一个局限性是，风险偏好仅作为个人特定变量而不是替代特定变量进行测量和建模。未来的研究应检查风险偏好的多个组成部分与AV的多个风险方面之间的关系。

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