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Transportation infrastructures in a low carbon world: An evaluation of investment needs and their determinants

机译：低碳世界的运输基础设施：对投资需求及其决定因素的评估

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Transportation infrastructures will either lock in transportation patterns in high CO2 modes or foster low-carbon pathways. At the same time, increases in future mobility demand require the rapid development of new infrastructures. Here we quantify investment needs for transportation infrastructures over time to achieve both development and climate objectives. We compared investment needs between world regions and analyzed their main determinants. To do so, we built socioeconomic scenarios with the Imaclim-R integrated assessment model, combining alternatives for model parameters that determine mobility patterns. We then estimated the levels of investment that are consistent with the passenger and freight transportation trends in the different scenarios with and without climate policy. Finally, we used a global sensitivity analysis to identify the determinants of investments in low-carbon scenarios. We find that the expenditure needed for transportation infrastructure is lower in low-carbon pathways than in baseline scenarios. This result holds true at both the global and regional scales and is robust to the uncertainties considered. This overall decrease is brought about in particular by a reduction in transport activity. Rail utilization rates and road construction costs are determining factors for investment in all regions. Modal shift from road to rail can be a lever to reduce investment needs only if combined with action on rail infrastructure occupancy. To obtain a comprehensive assessment of the costs related to the transport sector in a low-carbon world, additional investments not considered in this study related to energy efficiency or alternative fuels use should be integrated.
机译：运输基础设施将锁定高二氧化碳模式或促进低碳途径的运输模式。与此同时，未来的流动性需求的增加需要新基础设施的快速发展。在这里，我们随着时间的推移量化运输基础设施的投资需求，以实现发展和气候目标。我们比较了世界地区之间的投资需求，并分析了其主要决定因素。为此，我们建立了与IMACLIM-R综合评估模型的社会经济情景，将替代模式与确定移动模式的模型参数相结合。然后，我们估计了与不同情景中的乘客和货运趋势一致的投资水平，而无需气候政策。最后，我们使用了全局敏感性分析来确定低碳情景投资的决定因素。我们发现运输基础设施所需的支出低于基线情景的低碳途径。这一结果在全局和区域尺度上保持了真实，并且对所考虑的不确定性具有稳健。这一总体减少特别是通过减少运输活动来实现。轨道利用率和道路施工成本正在确定所有地区投资的因素。只有在轨道基础设施占用的行动结合时，才能从路上到轨道的道路转移可以是减少投资需求的杠杆。为了综合评估与低碳世界中的运输部门有关的成本，应整合本研究中未考虑的额外投资，应纳入与能效或替代燃料使用。

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