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Port disruptions due to natural disasters: Insights into port and logistics resilience

机译：由于自然灾害导致的港口中断：洞察港口和物流恢复力

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Ports are located in low-lying coastal and riverine areas making them prone to the physical impacts of natural disasters. The consequential disruptions can potentially propagate through supply chains, resulting in widespread economic losses. Previous studies to quantify the risks of port disruptions have adopted various modelling assumptions about the resilience of individual ports and marine network logistics. However, limited empirical evidence is available to validate these modelling assumptions or to provide deeper understanding of the ways in which operations are adapted during and after disruptions. Here, we use vessel tracking data to analyse past port disruptions due to natural disasters, evaluating 141 incidences of disruptions across 74 ports and 27 disasters. Results show a median disruption duration of six days with a 95th percentile of 22.2 days. All analysed events show multiple ports being affected simultaneously, challenging some of the studies that only focus on single port disruptions. Moreover, we find that the duration of the disruption scales with the severity of the event, with an increment of 1.0 m storm surge or 10 m/s wind speed associated with a two day increase in disruption duration. In contrast to commonplace assumptions in model studies, substitution between ports is rarely observed during short-term disruptions. On the other hand, production recapture happens in practice in many cases of port disruptions. In short, empirical vessel tracking data provides valuable insights for future modelling studies in order to better approximate the extent of the disruption and the potential resilience of the port and maritime network.
机译：港口位于低洼的沿海和河流区域，使其容易发生自然灾害的身体影响。相应的中断可能会通过供应链繁殖，导致普遍的经济损失。以前的研究为了量化港口中断的风险已经采用了关于个别港口和海洋网络物流的恢复性的各种建模假设。但是，有限的经验证据可用于验证这些建模假设，或者提供更深入地理解在中断期间和之后进行操作的方式。在这里，我们使用船舶跟踪数据来分析由于自然灾害引起的过去的港口中断，评估了141个港口和27个灾难的中断事件。结果显示中位中位中断持续时间为六天，95百分位为22.2天。所有分析的事件都显示了同时影响的多个端口，挑战一些只关注单港口中断的研究。此外，我们发现，随着事件的严重程度，中断尺度的持续时间，增量为1.0米的风暴浪涌或10米/升的风速，与中断持续时间的两天增加。相反，由于模型研究中的常见假设，在短期中断期间很少观察到端口之间的替换。另一方面，在许多港口中断的情况下，在实践中发生了生产重新。简而言之，经验船舶跟踪数据为未来的建模研究提供有价值的见解，以便更好地近似港口和海网的破坏程度和潜在的弹性。

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