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Urban transportation at an inflection point: An analysis of potential influencing factors

机译：城市交通在拐点：潜在影响因素分析

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摘要

Urban transportation is in the midst of a two-fold transformation: On the one hand, cities are beginning to acknowledge their climate responsibilities and are seeking to establish environmentally-friendly, sustainable transport systems. On the other hand, new transportation trends, such as shared mobility and autonomous driving, carry the potential to disruptively change conventional practices. In this study, we develop an activity-based transport demand model to quantify the effects of potential influencing factors on urban transportation in a syn-thetic city. We develop 18 scenarios to investigate urban transportation against the backdrop of mode availability, the deployment of shared mobility services, urban structure and societal change, such as urbanization and an aging population, as well as behavioral shifts in mode choice preferences. With respect to the results, we highlight the derived modal split for a city without private cars but with access to shared autonomous vehicles for all agents: We find a distribution of mode choices of 55% for walking and biking, 40% for public transportation and 5% for shared modes. Given this modal split, the total driven distance, as well as the total number of vehicles in the city, decreases by over 90% against current levels. Thus, an efficient future urban transport system should build upon public transportation for meeting the major share of transport demand, with slow modes for convenient travel across short distances and shared mobility for the inter-modal connection of both.
机译：城市交通是在两倍的转型中：一方面，城市开始承认他们的气候责任，并寻求建立环保，可持续的运输系统。另一方面，新的交通趋势，如共同的流动性和自主驾驶，携带有可能破坏传统实践的潜力。在这项研究中，我们开发了一种基于活动的运输需求模型，以量化潜在影响因素对一个同步城市交通的影响。我们开发18个方案来调查城市运输，以防止模式可用性的背景，共享移动服务，城市结构和社会变化的部署，如城市化和老龄化人口，以及模式选择偏好中的行为转变。关于结果，我们突出了一个没有私家车的城市的派生模式分裂，而是可以访问所有代理的共用自动车辆：我们发现步行和骑自行车的模式选择为55％，公共交通的40％共享模式5％。鉴于这种模态分裂，总驱动距离以及城市的车辆总数，抵抗电流水平超过90％。因此，有效的未来城市交通系统应在公共交通工具时建立运输需求的主要份额，具有较慢的方式，方便行程短距离，共享流动性，对两者的模间连接。

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  • 来源
    《Transportation Research》 |2021年第3期|102733.1-102733.29|共29页
  • 作者

    Reul Julian; Grube Thomas; Stolten Detlef;

  • 作者单位

    Forschungszentrum Julich Inst Energy & Climate Res Techno Econ Syst Anal I Wilhelm Johnen Str D-52428 Julich Germany;

    Forschungszentrum Julich Inst Energy & Climate Res Techno Econ Syst Anal I Wilhelm Johnen Str D-52428 Julich Germany;

    Forschungszentrum Julich Inst Energy & Climate Res Techno Econ Syst Anal I Wilhelm Johnen Str D-52428 Julich Germany|Rhein Westfal TH Aachen Inst Energy & Climate Res Technoecon Syst Anal IE Forschungszentrum Julich Wilhelm Johnen Str D-52428 Julich Germany;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Transportation trends; Urban transportation; Activity-based modeling; Shared mobility; Shared autonomous vehicles;

    机译：运输趋势;城市运输;基于活动的建模;共享移动性;共享自动车辆;

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