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首页> 外文期刊>Transportation Research >Increasing costs to Chinese railway infrastructure by extreme precipitation in a warmer world
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Increasing costs to Chinese railway infrastructure by extreme precipitation in a warmer world

机译：在温暖的世界中，通过极端降水提高中国铁路基础设施的成本

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摘要

The increase in extreme weather events associated with global warming has posed a global challenge for infrastructure. However, our current knowledge on the impact of climate change on infrastructure is quite limited. Here, by analyzing the historical rainfall induced disaster data of Chinese railways from 1981 to 2016, we demonstrate that the rainfall-induced disaster risk of railway infrastructure has increased with increasing extreme rainfall days. Following global warming of 1.5 degrees CC/2 degrees C/3 degrees C under RCP8.5, the proportion of railway infrastructure under high disaster susceptibility is projected to increase by similar to 2.8/4.0/6.7-fold compared to that of the baseline period (1981-1998). Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C would save economic losses by approximately $0.63 and $2.06 billion per year compared to those under warmings of 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C, respectively. This study implies the necessity and benefit of limiting global warming to the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees C in the context of infrastructure.
机译：与全球变暖相关的极端天气事件的增加对基础设施构成了全球挑战。但是，我们目前关于气候变化对基础设施影响的知识相当有限。在此，通过分析1981年至2016年中国铁路的历史降雨灾害数据，我们证明了铁路基础设施的降雨诱导的灾害风险随着极端降雨的日子而增加。在RCP8.5下全球变暖1.5度CC / 2摄氏度C / 3摄氏度之后，与基线期间相比，预计将在高灾害敏感度下的铁路基础设施比例增加与2.8 / 4.0 / 6.7折相比（1981-1998）。与每年2℃和3摄氏度的温暖相比，限制全球变暖至1.5摄氏度将节省经济损失约为0.63和20.6亿美元。本研究意味着在基础设施背景下将全球变暖的必要性和益处限制在1.5摄氏度的巴黎协议目标。

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  • 来源
    《Transportation Research》 |2021年第4期|102797.1-102797.13|共13页
  • 作者

    Liu Kai; Wang Ming; Zhou Tianjun;

  • 作者单位

    Beijing Normal Univ State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol Beijing 100875 Peoples R China|Beijing Normal Univ Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management Fac Geog Sci Beijing 100875 Peoples R China;

    Beijing Normal Univ State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol Beijing 100875 Peoples R China|Beijing Normal Univ Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management Fac Geog Sci Beijing 100875 Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop Beijing 100029 Peoples R China|Chinese Acad Sci CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci Beijing 100101 Peoples R China|Univ Chinese Acad Sci Beijing 100049 Peoples R China;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Railway infrastructure; Climate change; Rainfall; Disaster susceptibility; Risk;

    机译：铁路基础设施;气候变化;降雨;灾难易感性;风险;

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