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Open-source simulation of the long-term diffusion of alternative passenger cars on the basis of investment decisions of private persons

机译：在私人投资决策的基础上，替代乘用车长期扩散的开源模拟

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Numerous studies have shown that a full electrification of passenger cars is needed to stay within the 1.5? C temperature rise. This article deals with the question of how the required shares of alternative vehicles can be achieved by the year 2050. In literature the preferred technology are battery electric vehicles as these are more energy efficient than hydrogen vehicles. To be able to demonstrate how alternative vehicles diffuse into the German market, the passenger car investment behavior of private persons was investigated. For this purpose, a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with 1921 participants was carried out empirically. The results of the DCE show that the investment costs in particular are important when choosing a vehicle. This is followed by the driving range, fuel costs and vehicle type. Less important are the charging infrastructure and CO2 emissions of the vehicle. A CO2 tax is of least importance. The utility values of the DCE were used to simulate future market shares. For this purpose the open-source software Inve2st was developed and different scenarios were defined and calculated. This paper shows that conservative assumptions on attribute development leave a large gap until full electrification, as conventional vehicles still account for around 62% of market shares in 2050. In order to achieve full electrification, extreme efforts must be made, targeting the technical and economic characteristics of the vehicles, but also addressing person-related characteristics such as level of information, the subjective norm or the technological risk attitude. A ban on new registrations of combustion engines from 2030 could also lead to a full electrification by 2050. An average annual increase in the market share of alternative vehicles of 2.4 percentage points is needed to achieve full electrification. Other important factors are measures that address the modal shift to other modes of transport (rail, public transport, car-sharing).
机译：众多研究表明，需要在1.5内保持乘用车的充分电压？ C温度升高。本文涉及到2050年度可以实现替代车辆所需股票的问题。在文献中，优选的技术是电池电动车，因为这些是比氢气更能节能。为了能够展示替代车辆如何扩散到德国市场，私人人的乘用车投资行为被调查。为此目的，具有1921年参与者的离散选择实验（DCE）进行了经验。 DCE的结果表明，在选择车辆时，投资成本特别重要。这是驱动范围，燃料成本和车型。不太重要的是车辆的充电基础设施和二氧化碳排放量。二氧化碳税至少是重要性。 DCE的实用价值用于模拟未来的市场份额。为此目的，开发的开源软件已开发，并定义和计算不同的场景。本文表明，由于常规车辆仍然占2050年市场份额约62％的全部电气化，保守差距留下了巨大的差距。为了实现全面的电气化，必须进行极限努力，针对技术和经济车辆的特点，还解决了与信息水平，主观规范或技术风险态度等人有关的特征。禁止2030年的燃烧发动机的新注册也可能导致2050年的完全电气化。需要平均每年增加2.4个百分点的替代车辆的市场份额来实现全电气化。其他重要因素是解决模型转向其他运输方式（铁路，公共交通工具，汽车共享）的措施。

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