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Reconstructing and analyzing the traffic flow during evacuation in Hurricane Irma (2017)

机译：在飓风IRMA疏散过程中重建和分析交通流量（2017）

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摘要

Hurricane evacuation has long been a difficult problem perplexing local government. Hurricane Irma in 2017 created the most extensive scale of evacuation in Florida's history, involving about 6.5 million people in a mandatory evacuation order and an estimated 4 million evacuation vehicles. Traffic jams emerged in mid-Florida and rapidly spread to involve the entire state. To understand the hurricane evacuation process, the spatial and temporal evolution of the traffic flow is a critical piece of information, but it is usually not fully observed. Based on game theory, this paper employs the available traffic observation of main highways to reconstruct the traffic flow on all highways in Florida during Irma. The reconstructed traffic conditions compare well with those simulated by dynamic models while the reconstruction model is computationally much cheaper to use. Validation with smartphone data further confirms that the reconstruction model captures the traffic conditions for real evacuation processes. The reconstructed data show that the evacuation rates for 5 representative cities - Key West, Miami, Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville- in Florida were about 90.1%, 38.7%, 52.6%, 22.1%, and 7%, respectively. The peak evacuation traffic flows from Tampa and Miami arrived in the Orlando region at almost the same time, triggering the catastrophic congestion through the entire state. Also, the evacuation for Hurricane Irma was greater than that predicted by an evacuation demand model developed based on previous event and survey data. The detailed evacuation traffic flow reanalysis accomplished in this article lays a foundation for studying evacuation demand as well as developing evacuation management policies.
机译：飓风疏散长期以来一直是一个困难的地方令人困惑的地方政府。 2017年飓风IRMA在佛罗里达州的历史上创造了最广泛的疏散规模，涉及强制疏散令中约650万人，估计有400万辆疏散车辆。在佛罗里达州中年交通堵塞，迅速蔓延到涉及整个州。为了了解飓风疏散过程，交通流量的空间和时间演变是一种关键信息，但通常没有完全观察到。基于博弈论，本文采用了主要高速公路的可用交通观察，以重建IRMA期间佛罗里达州所有高速公路的交通流量。重建的流量条件与动态模型模拟的交通状况相比很好，而重建模型是计算的更便宜。使用智能手机数据验证进一步确认重建模型捕获实际疏散过程的流量条件。重建的数据显示，5个代表城市 - 基韦斯特，迈阿密，坦帕，奥兰多和杰克逊维尔 - 在佛罗里达州的疏散率分别为约90.1％，38.7％，52.6％，22.1％和7％。从坦帕和迈阿密的峰值疏散流量在几乎同时到达奥兰多地区，触发整个状态的灾难性拥堵。此外，飓风IRMA的疏散大于通过基于先前事件和调查数据开发的疏散需求模型预测的疏散。本文中完成的详细疏散交通流量分析为研究疏散需求以及开发疏散管理政策的基础。

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