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Vulnerability to fuel price increases in the UK: A household level analysis

机译：英国燃油价格上涨的脆弱性：家庭水平分析

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In highly motorised countries, some sectors of the population own and use cars despite struggling to afford their running costs, and so may be particularly vulnerable to motor fuel prices increases, whether market-led or policy-driven. This paper proposes a novel, disaggregated approach to investigating vulnerability to such increases at the household level. We propose a set of indicators of 'car-related economic stress' (ORES), based on individual household level expenditure data for the UK, to identify which low-income households spend disproportionately on running motor vehicles, and to assess the depth of their economic stress. By subsequently linking the dataset to local fuel price data, we are able to model the disaggregated price elasticities of car fuel demand. This provides us with an indicator of each household's adaptive capacity to fuel price increases. The findings show that 'Low Income, High Cost' households (LIHC) account for 9% of UK households and have distinct socio-demographic characteristics. Interestingly, they are characterised by very low responses to fuel price increases, which may cause them to compromise on other important areas of their household expenditures. Simulations suggest that a 20% increase in fuel prices would substantially increase the depth, but not the incidence of CRES. Overall, the study sheds light on a sector of the population with high levels of vulnerability to fuel price increases, owing to high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. This raises challenges for social, environmental and resilience policy in the transport sector.
机译：在高度机动化的国家中，尽管努力负担其运行成本，但仍有部分人口拥有和使用汽车，因此，无论是市场主导还是政策驱动，汽车燃油价格的上涨尤其容易受到影响。本文提出了一种新颖的，分类的方法来调查家庭层面此类增长的脆弱性。我们基于英国的个人家庭支出数据，提出了一套“与汽车相关的经济压力”（ORES）的指标，以确定哪些低收入家庭在驾驶汽车方面的支出不成比例，并评估其深度经济压力。通过随后将数据集链接到本地​​燃料价格数据，我们能够对汽车燃料需求的分类价格弹性进行建模。这为我们提供了每个家庭对燃油价格上涨的适应能力的指标。调查结果表明，“低收入，高成本”家庭（LIHC）占英国家庭的9％，并且具有明显的社会人口统计学特征。有趣的是，他们的特点是对燃油价格上涨的反应非常低，这可能导致他们在家庭支出的其他重要方面做出妥协。模拟表明，燃油价格上涨20％会大大增加深度，但不会增加CRES的发生率。总体而言，该研究揭示了由于高暴露，高敏感性和低适应能力而易受燃油价格上涨影响的人群。这给运输部门的社会，环境和抵御力政策提出了挑战。

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