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A generalized dynamic discrete choice model for green vehicle adoption

机译：用于绿色车辆的广义动态离散选择模型

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摘要

Much is happening in the automotive industry and new models are in the market or are expected to be available soon. At the same time, environmental awareness, new regulations for increased fuel efficiency, and the need to diminish greenhouse gas emissions make small vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles more competitive. As a consequence, vehicle characteristics and consumer decisions will change rapidly in the short and medium run. Accounting for the dynamic of the problem is important to correctly forecast green vehicle acceptance and to evaluate eco-friendly policies. This paper proposes a generalized dynamic discrete choice approach that models purchase behavior and forecasts future preferences in a finite time horizon setting. The framework allows one-time purchases, repeated purchases, univariate and multivariate diffusion processes that capture the evolution of vehicle characteristics and dynamics in the market conditions. The models proposed are estimated using stated preference data collected in Maryland. Results show that the formulation with repeated purchases successfully captures changes in the market shares, and that the multivariate diffusion process adopted to model the evolution of fuel prices further improves both model fit and the ability to recover peaks in demand. The estimated coefficients have been applied to test different policy scenarios, including changes in fuel prices, vehicle purchase prices, and improvements of car characteristics. These policies have a high impact on the adoption of electric cars and on their diffusion in the marketplace.
机译：汽车行业正在发生很多事情，新模型已经投放市场，或者有望很快上市。同时，环保意识，提高燃油效率的新法规以及减少温室气体排放的需求使小型汽车和代用燃料汽车更具竞争力。结果，在短期和中期，车辆特性和消费者决策将迅速改变。考虑问题的动态性对于正确预测绿色车辆的接受程度和评估环保政策很重要。本文提出了一种通用的动态离散选择方法，该方法可以在有限的时间范围内对购买行为进行建模并预测未来的偏好。该框架允许一次性购买，重复购买，单变量和多变量扩散过程，以捕获车辆特性和市场条件动态变化。建议的模型是使用马里兰州收集的明确的偏好数据估算的。结果表明，重复购买的配方成功地捕获了市场份额的变化，并且用于对燃料价格的演变进行建模的多元扩散过程进一步改善了模型拟合和恢复需求高峰的能力。估计的系数已用于测试不同的政策方案，包括燃油价格，车辆购买价格的变化以及汽车性能的改善。这些政策对电动汽车的采用及其在市场上的普及有很大影响。

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