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What is behind fare evasion in urban-bus systems? An econometric approach

机译：城市公交系统中逃票的背后是什么？计量经济学方法

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Fare evasion is a problem in many public transport systems around the world and policies to reduce it are generally aimed at improving control and increasing fines. We use an econometric approach to attempt explaining the high levels of evasion in Santiago, Chile, and guide public policy formulation to reduce this problem. In particular, a negative binomial count regression model allowed us to find that fare evasion rates on buses increase as: (i) more people board (or alight) at a given bus door, (ii) more passengers board by a rear door, (iii) buses have higher occupancy levels (and more doors) and (iv) passengers experience longer headways. By controlling these variables (ceteris paribus), results indicate that evasion is greater during the afternoon and evening, but it is not clear that it is higher during peak hours. Regarding socioeconomic variables, we found that fare evasion at bus stops located in higher income areas (municipalities) is significantly lower than in more deprived areas. Finally, based on our results we identified five main methods to address evasion as alternatives to more dedicated fine enforcement or increased inspection; (i) increasing the bus fleet, (ii) improving the bus headway regularity, (iii) implementing off -board payment stations, (iv) changing the payment system on board and (v) changing the bus design (number of doors or capacity). Our model provides a powerful tool to predict the reduction of fare evasion due to the implementation of some of these five operational strategies, and can be applied to other bus public transport systems. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：逃票是世界上许多公共交通系统中的一个问题，减少逃票的政策通常旨在改善管制和提高罚款。我们使用计量经济学的方法试图解释智利圣地亚哥的高逃税率，并指导制定公共政策来减少这一问题。特别是，负二项式计数回归模型使我们发现公共汽车的逃票率随着以下因素的增加而增加：（i）在给定的公交车门上更多的人上车（或下车），（ii）在后门上有更多的乘客上车，（ iii）公交车的占用率较高（门数更多），并且（iv）乘客的车距较长。通过控制这些变量（小羚羊），结果表明逃逸在下午和晚上更大，但尚不清楚在高峰时段逃逸率更高。关于社会经济变量，我们发现位于较高收入地区（市镇）的公交车站的逃票行为明显低于较贫困地区的逃票行为。最后，根据我们的结果，我们确定了解决逃税的五种主要方法，作为更专门的精细执法或增加检查的替代方法； （i）增加公交车队，（ii）改善公交车的行驶时间规律，（iii）实施车外支付站，（iv）更改车内支付系统，以及（v）更改公交车设计（车门数量或容量） ）。我们的模型提供了一个强大的工具，可以预测由于实施了这五个运营策略中的某些而导致的票价逃逸的减少，并且可以应用于其他公交公共交通系统。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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