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Factors affecting public transportation, car, and motorcycle usage

机译：影响公共交通，汽车和摩托车使用的因素

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摘要

This study established a hypothesis model based on the seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) model to investigate the relationship between public transportation, car, and motorcycle use in various townships in Taiwan and to analyse important factors that affect the usage of these modes. The SURE model was adopted because of the lack of a significant correlation between the dependent variables. The pairwise covariance analysis for any two of the three transportation modes revealed that the transportation modes could substitute for one another. Factors related to modal and demographic characteristics had different impacts on the usage of the three modes. The calculation of elasticity using different population densities and public transportation usage showed that when the 'number of city bus routes' was increased by 50% in areas with high population density and high public transportation usage, car usage decreased by 1.4%, which corresponds to 300,000 vehicles, and total CO_2 emissions reduced by 0.0204%. When the 'total length of city bus routes' was increased by 50%, the number of motorcycles used decreased by 83 million, and total CO_2 emissions reduced by 1.119%, which corresponds to 1.4 million tonnes of CO_2 emission. These findings suggest that these different factors had varying impacts on car and motorcycle usage in different areas. We therefore recommended that future transportation policies consider the varying transportation usage trends in different areas.
机译：这项研究基于看似无关的回归方程（SURE）模型建立了一个假设模型，以调查台湾各乡镇的公共交通，汽车和摩托车使用之间的关系，并分析影响这些模式使用的重要因素。之所以采用SURE模型，是因为因变量之间缺乏显着的相关性。三种运输方式中的任何两种的成对协方差分析表明，这些运输方式可以相互替代。与模态和人口特性有关的因素对这三种模式的使用有不同的影响。使用不同的人口密度和公共交通使用率进行的弹性计算表明，在人口密度高和公共交通使用率较高的地区，当“城市公交路线数量”增加50％时，汽车使用率下降了1.4％，与30万辆汽车，CO_2排放总量减少了0.0204％。当“城市公交路线的总长度”增加50％时，使用的摩托车数量减少了8300万辆，而总的CO_2排放量减少了1.119％，相当于140万吨的CO_2排放量。这些发现表明，这些不同的因素对不同地区的汽车和摩托车使用产生了不同的影响。因此，我们建议未来的运输政策考虑不同地区不同的运输使用趋势。

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