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首页> 外文期刊>Transportation Research >Time-varying effects of influential factors on incident clearance time using a non-proportional hazard-based model
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Time-varying effects of influential factors on incident clearance time using a non-proportional hazard-based model

机译：基于非比例风险模型的影响因素对事故清除时间的时变影响

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摘要

Incident clearance time is a major performance measure of the traffic emergency management. A clear understanding of the contributing factors and their effects on incident clearance time is essential for optimal incident management resource allocations. Most previous studies simply considered the average effects of the influential factors. Although the time-varying effects are also important for incident management agencies, they were not sufficiently investigated. To fill up the gap, this study develops a non-proportional hazard-based duration model for analyzing the time-varying effects of influential factors on incident clearance time. This study follows a systematic approach incorporating the following three procedures: proportionality test, model development/estimation, and effectiveness test. Applying the proposed model to the 2009 Washington State Incident Tracking System data, five factors were found to have significant but constant (or time independent) effects on the clearance time, which is similar to the findings from previous studies. However, our model also discovered thirteen variables that have significant time-varying impacts on clearance hazard. These factors cannot be identified through the conventional methods used in most previous studies. The influential factors are investigated from both macroscopic and microscopic perspectives. The population average effect evaluation provides the macroscopic insight and benefits long-term incident management, and the time-dependent pattern identification offers microscopic and time-sequential insight and benefits the specific incident clearance process.
机译：事故清除时间是交通应急管理的一项主要绩效指标。清楚了解影响因素及其对事件清除时间的影响，对于优化事件管理资源分配至关重要。以前的大多数研究只是考虑了影响因素的平均影响。尽管时变效应对于事件管理机构也很重要，但尚未对其进行充分调查。为了填补这一空白，本研究建立了一个基于非比例风险的持续时间模型，用于分析影响因素对事故清除时间的时变影响。这项研究遵循一种系统的方法，该方法包含以下三个过程：比例检验，模型开发/估计和有效性检验。将拟议的模型应用于2009年华盛顿州事件跟踪系统数据，发现五个因素对清除时间有明显但恒定（或与时间无关）的影响，这与以前的研究相似。但是，我们的模型还发现了13个变量，这些变量对清除危险有重大的时变影响。这些因素无法通过大多数先前研究中使用的常规方法来识别。从宏观和微观两个角度研究了影响因素。总体平均效果评估提供了宏观的见解，并有利于长期事件管理，而时变模式识别则提供了微观和按时间顺序的见解，并有益于特定的事件清除过程。

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  • 来源
    《Transportation Research》 |2014年第5期|12-24|共13页
  • 作者

    Lin Hou; Yunteng Lao; Yinhai Wang; Zuo Zhang; Yi Zhang; Zhiheng Li;

  • 作者单位

    National Laboratory for Information Science and Technology, Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA;

    National Laboratory for Information Science and Technology, Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;

    National Laboratory for Information Science and Technology, Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;

    National Laboratory for Information Science and Technology, Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Traffic incident; Clearance time; Hazard-based model; Non-proportionality; Time-varying effect;

    机译：交通事故;清关时间;基于危害的模型;非比例性;时变效应;

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