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Statistical assessment and analyses of the determinants of transportation sector gasoline demand in Jordan

机译：对约旦运输部门汽油需求决定因素的统计评估和分析

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The main objectives of this study are to analyze past gasoline consumption in Jordan's transportation sector and to identify main factors affecting its future demand. The sector is responsible for 39% of the total final energy consumption in Jordan, and is nearly totally dependent on oil consumption. The structure of this sector is analyzed with focus on passenger cars which represent 65% of total vehicles, and are responsible for nearly all of the national gasoline fuel demand. To achieve these objectives, the study develops a multi linear regression model using different independent variables based on 22-year historical data between years 1988 and 2009 refined from scattered data sources. The final model includes only the number of registered vehicles, income level, and gasoline price variables. A number of policy gaps are identified as contributors to the low efficiency composition of the fleet in terms of engine size, composition, availability of public transport, fuel prices, vehicle age, and type of ignition. To illustrate the importance of integrating energy policies within national energy plans, the impact of ending subsidies of gasoline was investigated and found to be significant. Without such policies, gasoline consumptions are predicted to rise by 1.81%/year. However, if such policies are implemented, over the same period, gasoline consumptions are forecasted to ascend at a lower rate of 0.53%/year.
机译：这项研究的主要目的是分析约旦运输部门过去的汽油消耗量，并确定影响其未来需求的主要因素。该部门占约旦最终总能源消耗的39％，几乎完全依赖于石油消耗。对这一部门的结构进行了分析，重点是乘用车，这些车辆占总车辆的65％，几乎满足了全国汽油的所有需求。为了实现这些目标，该研究基于从分散数据源中提炼的1988年至2009年之间的22年历史数据，使用不同的独立变量开发了一个多元线性回归模型。最终模型仅包括注册车辆的数量，收入水平和汽油价格变量。在发动机尺寸，组成，公共交通的可用性，燃料价格，车辆使用年限和点火类型方面，发现了许多政策空白是导致车队效率低下的原因。为了说明在国家能源计划中纳入能源政策的重要性，对汽油终止补贴的影响进行了调查，发现影响很大。没有这种政策，预计汽油消耗量每年将增长1.81％。但是，如果实施此类政策，则在同一时期，预计汽油消耗量将以每年0.53％的较低比率上升。

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