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Crowding in public transport systems: Effects on users, operation and implications for the estimation of demand

机译：公共交通系统中的拥挤：对用户的影响，运营及其对需求估算的影响

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摘要

The effects of high passenger density at bus stops, at rail stations, inside buses and trains are diverse. This paper examines the multiple dimensions of passenger crowding related to public transport demand, supply and operations, including effects on operating speed, waiting time, travel time reliability, passengers' wellbeing, valuation of waiting and in-vehicle time savings, route and bus choice, and optimal levels of frequency, vehicle size and fare. Secondly, crowding externalities are estimated for rail and bus services in Sydney, in order to show the impact of crowding on the estimated value of in-vehicle time savings and demand prediction. Using Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Error Components (EC) models, we show that alternative assumptions concerning the threshold load factor that triggers a crowding externality effect do have an influence on the value of travel time (VTTS) for low occupancy levels (all passengers sitting); however, for high occupancy levels, alternative crowding models estimate similar VTTS. Importantly, if demand for a public transport service is estimated without explicit consideration of crowding as a source of disutility for passengers, demand will be overestimated if the service is designed to have a number of standees beyond a threshold, as analytically shown using a MNL choice model. More research is needed to explore if these findings hold with more complex choice models and in other contexts.
机译：公交车站，火车站，公交车和火车内高乘客密度的影响是多种多样的。本文研究了与公共交通需求，供应和运营有关的乘客拥挤的多个方面，包括对运营速度，等待时间，旅行时间可靠性，乘客健康状况，等待和车载时间节省的评估，路线和公交车选择的影响，以及最佳的频率，车辆大小和票价水平。其次，估计悉尼铁路和公交服务的拥挤外部性，以显示拥挤对车载时间节省和需求预测的估计值的影响。使用多项式Lo​​git（MNL）和错误组件（EC）模型，我们表明，关于触发拥挤外部性效应的阈值载荷因子的替代假设确实会影响低占用水平（所有乘客）的旅行时间（VTTS）的值坐）;但是，对于高占用率，替代的拥挤模型估计出类似的VTTS。重要的是，如果估计公共交通服务的需求时没有明确考虑拥挤是造成乘客无用的来源，那么，如果该服务的设计目的是使一些与会者超出阈值，则需求将被高估，如使用MNL选择进行分析所示模型。需要更多的研究来探索这些发现是否适用于更复杂的选择模型以及在其他情况下。

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  • 来源
    《Transportation Research》 |2013年第7期|36-52|共17页
  • 作者

    Alejandro Tirachini; David A. Hensher; John M. Rose;

  • 作者单位

    Transport Engineering Division, Civil Engineering Department, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile;

    Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS), The University of Sydney Business School, The University of Sydney. NSW 2006, Australia;

    Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS), The University of Sydney Business School, The University of Sydney. NSW 2006, Australia;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Crowding; Standing; Travel time; Waiting time; Reliability; Wellbeing;

    机译：拥挤常设;旅行时间;等待的时间;可靠性;福利;

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