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The effect of incentives and technology on the adoption of electric motorcycles: A stated choice experiment in Vietnam

机译：激励措施和技术对电动摩托车采用的影响：越南的既定选择实验

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摘要

Many Asian cities are experiencing rapid growth in the ownership of personal gasoline-powered motorcycles, a shift away from relatively low-emitting modes of transportation that is contributing to deteriorated air quality. Electric two-wheelers have the potential for significant air pollution reductions as an alternative to gasoline-powered motorcycles; however, they have yet to penetrate many Asian markets. While previous research has examined the adoption of cleaner alternatives to gasoline-powered automobiles (e.g., hybrid electric cars), similar work on motorcycle alternatives is lacking. This study uses a stated preference survey of households in Hanoi, Vietnam to analyze adoption of electric two-wheelers, while focusing on the effects of economic incentives (e.g., differentia! sales taxes and fuel prices) and technological improvements (e.g., more efficient batteries). A choice model is estimated and market shares are calculated for scenarios involving different levels of electric two-wheeler technology, gasoline prices, and sales tax rates. Results indicate that technological improvements and economic incentives, particularly sales taxes, have significant effects on adoption.
机译：许多亚洲城市的个人用汽油动力摩托车的拥有量正在快速增长，这是从排放量相对较低的交通方式转变而来的，这导致空气质量恶化。电动两轮车有可能显着减少空气污染，以替代汽油动力摩托车。但是，它们尚未渗透到许多亚洲市场。虽然先前的研究已经研究了采用汽油驱动的汽车（例如混合动力电动汽车）的更清洁替代品的方法，但仍缺乏在摩托车替代品方面的类似工作。这项研究使用了对越南河内的家庭进行的既定偏好调查，以分析电动两轮车的采用情况，同时侧重于经济诱因（例如差异税，燃油价格和燃油价格）和技术改进（例如效率更高的电池）的影响）。对于涉及不同水平的电动两轮车技术，汽油价格和销售税率的方案，估计选择模型并计算市场份额。结果表明，技术改进和经济激励措施，特别是销售税，对采用产生了重大影响。

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