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Analysis of telecommuting behavior and impacts on travel demand and the environment

机译：分析通勤行为及其对旅行需求和环境的影响

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The discussion of whether, and to what extent, telecommuting can curb congestion in urban areas has spanned more than three decades. This study develops an integrated framework to provide the empirical evidence of the potential impacts of home-based telecommuting on travel behavior, network congestion, and air quality. In the first step, we estimate a telecommuting adoption model using a zero-inflated hierarchical ordered probit model to determine the factors associated with workers’ propensity to adopt telecommuting. Second, we implement the estimated model in the POLARIS activity-based framework to simulate the potential changes in workers’ activity-travel patterns and network congestion. Third, the MOVES mobile source emission simulator and Autonomie vehicle energy simulator are used to estimate the potential changes in vehicular emissions and fuel use in the network as a result of this policy. Different policy adoption scenarios are then tested in the proposed integrated platform. We found that compared to the current baseline situation where almost 12% of workers in Chicago region have flexible working time schedule, in the case when 50% of workers have flexible working time, telecommuting can reduce total daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and vehicle hours traveled (VHT) up to 0.69% and 2.09%, respectively. Considering the same comparison settings, this policy has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas and particulate matter emissions by up to 0.71% and 1.14%, respectively. In summary, our results endorse the fact that telecommuting policy has the potential to reduce network congestion and vehicular emissions specifically during rush hours.
机译：关于远程通勤能否抑制城市拥堵的讨论已有三十多年了。这项研究开发了一个集成的框架，以提供基于经验的证据，说明基于家庭的远程办公对旅行行为，网络拥挤和空气质量的潜在影响。第一步，我们使用零膨胀分层有序概率模型来估计远程办公采用模型，以确定与工人采用远程办公倾向相关的因素。其次，我们在基于POLARIS活动的框架中实施估算模型，以模拟工人活动行程模式和网络拥堵的潜在变化。第三，由于这项政策，MOVES移动源排放模拟器和Autonomie车辆能源模拟器可用于估算网络中车辆排放和燃料使用的潜在变化。然后，在建议的集成平台中测试不同的策略采用方案。我们发现，与当前基线状况相比，芝加哥地区近12％的工人拥有灵活的工作时间安排，而在50％的工人具有灵活的工作时间的情况下，远程办公可以减少总的每日行车里程（VMT）和车辆行驶小时数（VHT）分别高达0.69％和2.09％。考虑到相同的比较设置，此策略有可能分别减少多达0.71％和1.14％的温室气体排放量。总而言之，我们的研究结果支持以下事实：远程办公政策具有减少网络拥堵和车辆排放的潜力，特别是在高峰时段。

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