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The effect of uncertainty on US transport-related GHG emissions and fuel consumption out to 2050

机译：不确定性对直至2050年美国运输相关温室气体排放和燃料消耗的影响

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The future of US transport energy requirements and emissions is uncertain. Transport pol icy research has explored a number of scenarios to better understand the future character istics of US light-duty vehicles. Deterministic scenario analysis is, however, unable to identify the impact of uncertainty on the future US vehicle fleet emissions and energy use. Variables determining the future fleet emissions and fuel use are inherently uncertain and thus the shortfall in understanding the impact of uncertainty on the future of US trans port needs to be addressed. This paper uses a stochastic technology and fleet assessment model to quantify the uncertainties in US vehicle fleet emissions and fuel use for a realistic yet ambitious pathway which results in about a 50% reduction in fleet GHG emissions in 2050. The results show the probability distribution of fleet emissions, fuel use, and energy consumption over time out to 2050. The expected value for the fleet fuel consumption is about 450 and 350 billion litres of gasoline equivalent with standard deviations of 40 and 80 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The expected value for the fleet GHG emissions is about 1360 and 850 Mt CO_2 equivalent with standard deviation of 130 and 230 in 2030 and 2050 respectively. The parameters that are major contributors to variations in emis sions and fuel consumption are also identified and ranked through the uncertainty analy sis. It is further shown that these major contributors change over time, and include parameters such as: vehicle scrappage rate, annual growth of vehicle kilometres travelled in the near term, total vehicle sales, fuel economy of the dominant naturally-aspirated spark ignition vehicles, and percentage of gasoline displaced by cellulosic ethanol. The findings in this paper demonstrate the importance of taking uncertainties into consider ation when choosing amongst alternative fuel and emissions reduction pathways, in the light of their possible consequences.
机译：美国运输能源需求和排放的未来不确定。运输政策研究已经探索了许多方案，以更好地了解美国轻型车辆的未来特性。但是，确定性方案分析无法确定不确定性对未来美国车辆排放和能源使用的影响。确定未来车队排放和燃料使用的变量具有内在的不确定性，因此需要解决在了解不确定性对美国运输业的未来影响方面的不足。本文使用一种随机技术和车队评估模型来量化美国车队排放和燃料使用中的不确定性，这是一个现实而雄心勃勃的途径，可在2050年使车队GHG排放减少约50％。结果表明，到2050年，机队的排放，燃料使用和能源消耗随时间推移而变化。车队燃料消耗的预期价值约为450和3500亿升汽油当量，到2030年和2050年的标准偏差分别为40和80。到2030年和2050年，车队GHG排放的期望值分别约为1360和850 Mt CO_2当量，标准偏差分别为130和230。通过不确定性分析，还可以确定排放和燃油消耗变化的主要参数。进一步表明，这些主要贡献者随时间变化，包括以下参数：车辆报废率，近期行驶的车辆公里数年增长率，车辆总销量，主要自然吸气火花点火车辆的燃油经济性以及纤维素乙醇替代汽油的百分比。本文的研究结果表明，在选择替代燃料和减排途径时，考虑到不确定因素的重要性，考虑其不确定性的重要性。

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