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Demand and welfare effects in recreational travel models: Accounting for substitution between number of trips and days to stay

机译：休闲旅行模型中的需求和福利影响：考虑旅行次数和停留天数之间的替代

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In this paper we present a non-linear demand system for households' joint choice of num ber of trips and days to spend at a destination. The approach, which facilitates welfare anal ysis of exogenous policy and price changes, is used empirically to study the effects of an increased CO_2 tax. In particular, we focus on the effect of including substitution between households choice of the number of trips and days to spend at a destination in the welfare analysis. The analysis reveals that the equivalent variation (EV) measure, for the count data demand system, can be seen as an upper bound for the households welfare loss. Approxi mating the welfare loss by the change in consumer surplus, accounting for the positive effect from longer stays, imposes a lower bound on the households welfare loss. The differ ence in the estimated loss measures, from the considered CO_2 tax reform, is about 20%. This emphasizes the importance of accounting for substitutions toward longer stays in travel demand policy evaluations.
机译：在本文中，我们提出了一个非线性需求系统，用于家庭共同选择在目的地花费的旅行次数和天数。该方法有助于外生政策和价格变化的福利分析，在经验上用于研究增加CO_2税的影响。特别地，我们关注的是在福利分析中包括替代住户选择旅行次数和在目的地停留的天数的效果。分析表明，对于计数数据需求系统，等价变异（EV）度量可以看作是家庭福利损失的上限。由消费者剩余的变化来弥补福利损失的方法，考虑了长期逗留的积极影响，对家庭的福利损失施加了下限。与已考虑的CO_2税制改革相比，估算的损失衡量标准之间的差异约为20％。这强调了在旅行需求政策评估中考虑长期住宿替代的重要性。

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