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Vulnerability analysis for large-scale and congested road networks with demand uncertainty

机译：需求不确定的大规模拥挤路网的脆弱性分析

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摘要

To assess the vulnerability of congested road networks, the commonly used full network scan approach is to evaluate all possible scenarios of link closure using a form of traffic assignment. This approach can be computationally burdensome and may not be viable for identifying the most critical links in large-scale networks. In this study, an "impact area" vulnerability analysis approach is proposed to evaluate the consequences of a link closure within its impact area instead of the whole network. The proposed approach can significantly reduce the search space for determining the most critical links in large-scale networks. In addition, a new vulnerability index is introduced to examine properly the consequences of a link closure. The effects of demand uncertainty and heterogeneous travellers' risk-taking behaviour are explicitly consid ered. Numerical results for two different road networks show that in practice the proposed approach is more efficient than traditional full scan approach for identifying the same set of crit ical links. Numerical results also demonstrate that both stochastic demand and travellers' risk taking behaviour have significant impacts on network vulnerability analysis, especially under high network congestion and large demand variations. Ignoring their impacts can underes timate the consequences of link closures and misidentify the most critical links.
机译：为了评估拥挤的道路网络的脆弱性，通常使用的完整网络扫描方法是使用一种交通分配形式来评估链路关闭的所有可能情况。这种方法可能在计算上很繁琐，并且可能不适用于识别大型网络中最关键的链接。在这项研究中，提出了一种“影响区域”漏洞分析方法，以评估在其影响区域而不是整个网络内链路关闭的后果。所提出的方法可以显着减少用于确定大型网络中最关键的链接的搜索空间。此外，引入了新的漏洞索引以正确检查链接关闭的后果。明确考虑了需求不确定性和异类旅行者冒险行为的影响。两个不同道路网络的数值结果表明，在实践中，所提出的方法比传统的全扫描方法更有效地识别同一组关键链路。数值结果还表明，随机需求和旅行者的冒险行为都会对网络脆弱性分析产生重大影响，尤其是在网络拥挤和需求变化较大的情况下。忽略它们的影响可能不足以预知链接关闭的后果，并会错误地识别最关键的链接。

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  • 来源
    《Transportation Research》 |2012年第3期|p.501-516|共16页
  • 作者

    Bi Yu Chen; William H.K. Lam; Agachai Sumalee; Qingquan Li; Zhi-Chun Li;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Horn, Kowloon, Hong Kong,State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China;

    Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Horn, Kowloon, Hong Kong,School of Traffic & Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China;

    Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Horn, Kowloon, Hong Kong;

    State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China;

    School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    vulnerability analysis; vulnerability index; large-scale and congested road network; reliability-based traffic assignment;

    机译：脆弱性分析;脆弱性指数;大规模拥挤的道路网;基于可靠性的流量分配;

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