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Projecting impacts of two-wheelers on urban air quality of Douala, Cameroon

机译：两轮车对喀麦隆杜阿拉的城市空气质量的影响预测

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Douala, one of the fastest developing cities of Cameroon, has been experiencing unprecedented growth of two-wheelers (motorbikes) and poor perceived air quality. The city has no air quality monitoring system and no air quality data. The only survey that reported the carbon monoxide (CO) levels was carried out by the World Bank under the Clean Air Initiative in 2002 and another study of traffic counts in 2008. In this study, the World Bank CO concentration levels of 2002 have been validated by back projecting the 2008 traffic scenario using vehicular emission and line source dispersion models and future scenarios up to 2015 have been projected at one of the busiest traffic intersections. The potential impacts of Euro emissions standards to improve the roadside air quality in Douala were studied. The results showed that the CO levels increased by a factor of 18 for a period from 2002 to 2015 with an annual increase of 65% in two-wheelers and 31% in cars. The estimated population of two-wheelers in 2015 was found to be 23 times higher than in 2002, which, by 2035, is expected to grow by 533% and the car ownership by 146%. If Euro II and III emissions standards are gradually implemented on two-wheelers in Cameroon, CO levels along roadways are expected to be reduced by about 70%. These results may be helpful to policy makers to prepare an air quality management plan for the city. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：杜阿拉（Duala）是喀麦隆发展最快的城市之一，两轮车（摩托车）的空前发展以及人们对空气质量的不良认识一直在经历。该市没有空气质量监测系统，也没有空气质量数据。唯一报告一氧化碳（CO）水平的调查是由世界银行在2002年根据“清洁空气倡议”进行的，另一项研究是在2008年进行的流量计数研究。在此研究中，世界银行对2002年的一氧化碳浓度水平进行了验证。通过使用车辆排放和线源弥散模型对2008年的交通场景进行回溯预测，并在最繁忙的交通路口之一上预测了到2015年的未来场景。研究了欧洲排放标准对改善杜阿拉路边空气质量的潜在影响。结果表明，从2002年到2015年，二氧化碳水平增加了18倍，其中两轮车和汽车的年均增长分别为65％和31％。据估计，2015年两轮车的人口是2002年的23倍，到2002年，到2035年，预计将增长533％，汽车拥有量增长146％。如果喀麦隆的两轮车逐步实施欧II和欧III排放标准，则沿道路的一氧化碳水平有望降低约70％。这些结果可能有助于政策制定者为城市制定空气质量管理计划。 （C）2017 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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