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Impact assessment of extreme weather events on transport networks: A data-driven approach

机译：极端天气事件对运输网络的影响评估：一种数据驱动的方法

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摘要

The present paper presents a data-driven method for assessing the resilience of the European passenger transport network during extreme weather events. The method aims to fill in the gap of current research efforts regarding the quantification of impacts attributed to climate change and the identification of substitutability opportunities between transport modes in case of extreme weather events (EWE). The proposed method consists of three steps concerning the probability estimation of an EWE occurring within a transportation network, the assessment of its impacts and the passengers' flow shift between various transport modes. A mathematical formulation for the proposed data-driven method is provided and applied in an indicative European small-scale network, in order to assess the impacts of EWE on modal choice. Results are expressed in passenger differentiated flows and the paper concludes with future research steps and directions.
机译：本文提出了一种数据驱动的方法，用于评估极端天气事件期间欧洲客运网络的弹性。该方法旨在填补当前有关量化气候变化影响和确定极端天气事件（EWE）下交通方式之间可替代性机会的研究工作的空白。所提出的方法包括三个步骤，分别涉及在运输网络中发生的EWE的概率估计，对其影响的评估以及各种运输方式之间的客流转移。提供了一种针对所提出的数据驱动方法的数学公式，并将其应用于指示性的欧洲小型网络中，以评估EWE对模式选择的影响。结果以差异化的客流表示，并以未来的研究步骤和方向作为结论。

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  • 来源
    《Transportation Research》 |2015年第1期|168-178|共11页
  • 作者

    Iraklis Stamos; Evangelos Mitsakis; Josep Maria Salanova; Georgia Aifadopoulou;

  • 作者单位

    Centre for Research and Technology Hellas - Hellenic Institute of Transport, 6th km Charilaou-Thermi Rd., 57001 Thermi, Thessaloniki, Greece;

    Centre for Research and Technology Hellas - Hellenic Institute of Transport, 6th km Charilaou-Thermi Rd., 57001 Thermi, Thessaloniki, Greece;

    Centre for Research and Technology Hellas - Hellenic Institute of Transport, 6th km Charilaou-Thermi Rd., 57001 Thermi, Thessaloniki, Greece;

    Centre for Research and Technology Hellas - Hellenic Institute of Transport, 6th km Charilaou-Thermi Rd., 57001 Thermi, Thessaloniki, Greece;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Extreme weather events; Impact quantification; Climate change; Resilience of passenger networks;

    机译：极端天气事件;影响量化;气候变化;旅客网络的弹性;

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