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Estimating emissions reductions from accelerated vehicle retirement programs

机译：通过加速车辆报废计划估算减排量

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Accelerated vehicle retirement programs offer owners of older vehicles incentives to scrap those vehicles earlier than might otherwise occur. Since older vehicles generally pollute more than newer vehicles, public agencies adopt such programs to reduce air pollutant emissions. Current methods of estimating the emissions reduction benefits of the programs are based on several assumptions and limited empirical evidence. This paper uses data from two large-scale programs in California to demonstrate that changing assumptions can significantly alter the assumed benefits of the program. The results show that vehicle retirement programs are likely to reduce emissions, but probably not as much as expected, particularly for nitrogen oxide and carbon monoxide emissions. The differences in estimates stem from several factors: scrapped vehicles are generally driven fewer miles than other vehicles of the same model year; some of the vehicles would have been scrapped without the program or not have lasted as long as expected; emissions for some pollutants may not be as high as predicted; and replacement vehicles are usually older than the fleet average.
机译：加速的车辆报废计划为老式车辆的所有者提供了比早先报废这些车辆的动力。由于旧车辆通常比新车辆污染更多，因此公共机构采用此类计划来减少空气污染物的排放。目前估算方案减排收益的方法是基于几种假设和有限的经验证据。本文使用来自加利福尼亚州两个大型计划的数据来证明不断变化的假设会大大改变该计划的假设收益。结果表明，车辆报废计划可能会减少排放，但可能不如预期的那样多，特别是对于氮氧化物和一氧化碳排放。估算值的差异源于几个因素：报废的汽车行驶的里程通常少于同一车型年的其他汽车；如果没有该计划，一些车辆将被报废，或者没有达到预期的使用寿命；某些污染物的排放量可能不及预期的高；替换车辆通常比车队的平均年龄大。

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