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首页> 外文期刊>Transportation Research Part B: Methodological >Flexible build-operate-transfer contracts for road franchising under demand uncertainty
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Flexible build-operate-transfer contracts for road franchising under demand uncertainty

机译：在需求不确定性的情况下，灵活的建造－经营－转让合同，用于道路特许经营

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摘要

As highway franchising programs are being introduced worldwide through the so-called build-operate-transfer (BOT) contracts, both the government and the private investor are facing a critical issue of how to make a BOT contract under the uncertainty of future traffic demand using the new highway. This paper investigates the full and partial flexibility of the BOT contract according to the instruments adopted by the government and the private investor. Full flexibility refers to the case in which the government promises an exogenous rate of return on the private investment and in turn can freely ex post adjust the contract in a socially optimal manner according to the observed demand curve. Partial flexibility refers to the case in which the government and the private investor agree on an ex ante demand risk allocation by contract and the ex post contract adjustment can be made contingent on a Pareto-improvement to both parties. A preferred Pareto-improvement can be selected from the Pareto-optimal solution set of a bi-objective programming problem equipped with a rational preference. The optimal BOT contracts with the two types of flexibility are examined by assuming that the government chooses the original contract variables to maximize the expected total social welfare under demand uncertainty while taking account of the ex post optimal contract adjustments.
机译：随着高速公路特许经营计划通过所谓的建设－运营－转让（BOT）合同在全球范围内推出，政府和私人投资者都面临着如何在未来交通需求不确定的情况下如何制定BOT合同的关键问题。新公路。本文根据政府和私人投资者采用的工具，研究了BOT合同的全部和部分灵活性。充分的灵活性是指政府承诺私人投资的外来回报率，然后又可以根据观察到的需求曲线以社会最优方式自由事后调整合同。部分灵活性是指政府和私人投资者同意通过合同事先分配需求风险，并且事后合同调整可以视对双方的帕累托改进而定。可以从配备有理性偏好的双目标规划问题的帕累托最优解集中选择一个优选的帕累托改进。通过假设政府选择原始合同变量以在需求不确定性的情况下最大化预期的总社会福利，同时考虑事后最优合同调整，来检验具有两种灵活性的最优BOT合同。

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