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Representing heterogeneity in structural relationships among multiple choice variables using a latent segmentation approach

机译：使用潜在分割方法表示选择变量之间的结构关系中的异质性

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Travel model systems often adopt a single decision structure that links several activity-travel choices together. The single decision structure is then used to predict activity-travel choices, with those downstream in the decision-making chain influenced by those upstream in the sequence. The adoption of a singular sequential causal structure to depict relationships among activity-travel choices in travel demand model systems ignores the possibility that some choices are made jointly as a bundle as well as the possible presence of structural heterogeneity in the population with respect to decision-making processes. As different segments in the population may adopt and follow different causal decision-making mechanisms when making selected choices jointly, it would be of value to develop simultaneous equations model systems relating multiple endogenous choice variables that are able to identify population subgroups following alternative causal decision structures. Because the segments are not known a priori, they are considered latent and determined endogenously within a joint modeling framework proposed in this paper. The methodology is applied to a national mobility survey data set to identify population segments that follow different causal structures relating residential location choice, vehicle ownership, and car-share and mobility service usage. It is found that the model revealing three distinct latent segments best describes the data, confirming the efficacy of the modeling approach and the existence of structural heterogeneity in decision-making in the population. Future versions of activity-travel model systems should strive to incorporate such structural heterogeneity to better reflect varying decision processes across population subgroups.
机译：差旅模型系统通常采用将多个活动旅行选择链接在一起的单一决策结构。然后，将单个决策结构用于预测活动旅行选择，而决策链中的下游选择则受顺序中的上游影响。在旅行需求模型系统中采用单一的顺序因果结构来描述活动-旅行选择之间的关系，忽略了某些选择被捆绑在一起的可能性，以及人口中在决策方面存在结构异质性的可能性。制作过程。由于人口中的不同阶层在共同做出选择时可能会采用并遵循不同的因果决策机制，因此开发与多个内生选择变量相关联的联立方程模型系统是很有价值的，这些系统能够根据替代性因果决策结构来识别人口子群。 。由于这些段不是先验已知的，因此它们被认为是潜在的，并且是在本文提出的联合建模框架中内生确定的。将该方法应用于全国流动性调查数据集，以识别遵循与居住地点选择，车辆拥有权以及汽车共享和流动性服务的使用有关的不同因果结构的人群。结果发现，揭示三个不同潜在段的模型最能描述数据，证实了建模方法的有效性以及人口决策中结构异质性的存在。活动旅行模型系统的未来版本应努力整合这种结构异质性，以更好地反映整个人口子群体的不同决策过程。

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