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Indirect estimation of interregional freight flows with a real-valued genetic algorithm

机译:具有实值遗传算法的区域间货运流动的间接估计

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This paper introduces a method for estimating the interregional transportation of certain commodities in those cases where the commodity flows are not readily available and only aggregated flows per origin-destination pair are provided. We use a doubly-constrained gravity model to find a matrix of aggregated flows that is as similar as possible to the available data, in the sense of the standardized root mean square error. This model is calibrated via a real-valued genetic algorithm that uses a combination of global and local searches to find a set of optimal parameters of the deterrence function under study in the gravity model. This method is introduced as an application to estimating the disaggregated flows of ten different products among the fifteen regions of peninsular Spain between 2007 and 2016. After testing several formulations, we conclude that an exponential deterrence function calibrated with data from 2010 is as effective to estimate the flows in this 10-year span as other more complex options, which emphasizes the time transferability of our model.
机译:本文介绍了一种用于估计某些商品中的区域间运输的方法,其中商品流量不易获得,并且仅提供每个原始目的地对的聚合流。我们使用双重约束的重力模型来找到与可用数据相似的聚合流的矩阵,在标准化的根均方误差的意义上。该模型通过实际值遗传算法校准,该遗传算法使用全局和本地搜索的组合来查找重力模型中的威慑功能的一组最佳参数。该方法被引入2007年至2016年间半岛西班牙十五个地区中十个不同产品的分列的10种不同产品的应用。在测试多种配方之后,我们得出结论,从2010年的数据校准的指数威慑功能与估计有效这种10年跨度的流量作为其他更复杂的选项,它强调了我们模型的时间可转换性。

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