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A causal inference approach to measure the vulnerability of urban metro systems

机译：衡量城市地铁系统脆弱性的因果推理方法

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摘要

Transit operators need vulnerability measures to understand the level of service degradation under disruptions. This paper contributes to the literature with a novel causal inference approach for estimating station-level vulnerability in metro systems. The empirical analysis is based on large-scale data on historical incidents and population-level passenger demand. This analysis thus obviates the need for assumptions made by previous studies on human behaviour and disruption scenarios. We develop four empirical vulnerability metrics based on the causal impact of disruptions on travel demand, average travel speed and passenger flow distribution. Specifically, the proposed metrics based on the irregularity in passenger flow distribution extends the scope of vulnerability measurement to the entire trip distribution, instead of just analysing the disruption impact on the entry or exit demand (that is, moments of the trip distribution). The unbiased estimates of disruption impact are obtained by adopting a propensity score matching method, which adjusts for the confounding biases caused by non-random occurrence of disruptions. An application of the proposed framework to the London Underground indicates that the vulnerability of a metro station depends on the location, topology, and other characteristics. We find that, in 2013, central London stations are more vulnerable in terms of travel demand loss. However, the loss of average travel speed and irregularity in relative passenger flows reveal that passengers from outer London stations suffer from longer individual delays due to lack of alternative routes.
机译：过境运营商需要漏洞措施来了解中断下的服务水平。本文有助于估计地铁系统中的车站级漏洞的新因果推理方法的文献。实证分析基于历史事件和人口级乘客需求的大规模数据。因此，这种分析消除了以前关于人类行为和中断情景研究的假设的需求。我们根据旅行需求中断，平均旅行速度和乘客流量分布的因果影响，开发了四个经验漏洞指标。具体地，基于乘客流量分布的不规则性的提出的指标将漏洞测量的范围扩展到整个行程分布，而不是仅仅分析对进入或退出需求的破坏影响（即旅行分发的时刻）。通过采用倾向得分匹配方法，可以通过采用倾斜的评分匹配方法来获得非偏见的破坏抗冲估计，这调整了由非随机发生破坏引起的混杂偏差。向伦敦地铁建议框架的应用表明，地铁站的漏洞取决于位置，拓扑和其他特征。我们发现，在2013年，伦敦中央车站在旅行需求损失方面更脆弱。然而，相对乘客流量的平均旅行速度和不规则性的损失表明，由于缺乏替代路线，外部伦敦车站的乘客遭受了更长的个体延误。

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  • 来源
    《Transportation》 |2021年第6期|3269-3300|共32页
  • 作者

    Zhang Nan; Graham Daniel J.; Horcher Daniel; Bansal Prateek;

  • 作者单位

    Imperial Coll London Transport Strategy Ctr Dept Civil & Environm Engn London England;

    Imperial Coll London Transport Strategy Ctr Dept Civil & Environm Engn London England;

    Imperial Coll London Transport Strategy Ctr Dept Civil & Environm Engn London England;

    Imperial Coll London Transport Strategy Ctr Dept Civil & Environm Engn London England;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Vulnerability; Urban metro system; Causal inference; Propensity score matching;

    机译：漏洞;城市地铁系统;因果推断;倾向得分匹配;

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