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A practical method to estimate the benefits of improved road network reliability: an application to departing air passengers

机译：一种评估改善路网可靠性的好处的实用方法：在离港航空旅客中的应用

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摘要

This paper develops and applies a practical method to estimate the benefits of improved reliability of road networks. We present a general methodology to estimate the scheduling costs due to travel time variability for car travel. In contrast to existing practical methods, we explicitly consider the effect of travel time variability on departure time choices. We focus on situations when only mean delays are known, which is typically the case when standard transport models are used. We first show how travel time variability can be predicted from mean delays. We then estimate the scheduling costs of travellers, taking into account their optimal departure time choice given the estimated travel time variability. We illustrate the methodology for air passengers traveling by car to Amsterdam Schiphol Airport. We find that on average planned improvements in network reliability only lead to a small reduction in access costs per trip in absolute terms, mainly because most air passengers drive to the airport outside peak hours, when travel time variability tends to be low. However, in relative terms the reduction in access costs due to the improvements in network reliability is substantial. In our case we find that for every 1 Euro reduction in travel time costs, there is an additional cost reduction of 0.7 Euro due to lower travel time variability, and hence lower scheduling costs. Ignoring the benefits from improved reliability may therefore lead to a severe underestimation of the total benefits of infrastructure improvements.
机译：本文开发并应用了一种实用的方法来估算改善路网可靠性的好处。我们提出了一种通用的方法来估算由于汽车旅行的旅行时间可变性而产生的调度成本。与现有的实际方法相反，我们明确考虑旅行时间可变性对出发时间选择的影响。我们关注仅知道平均延迟的情况，通常是使用标准运输模型时的情况。我们首先展示如何通过平均延迟来预测出行时间的可变性。然后，在给定估计的旅行时间可变性的情况下，考虑到他们的最佳出发时间选择，我们估计旅行者的调度成本。我们说明了乘飞机前往阿姆斯特丹史基浦机场的航空旅客的方法。我们发现，平均而言，计划中的网络可靠性改善只会绝对减少每次旅行的访问成本，这主要是因为大多数航空乘客会在高峰时间以外开车前往机场，而旅行时间的波动性往往很低。但是，相对而言，由于网络可靠性的提高而降低了访问成本。在我们的案例中，我们发现旅行时间成本每减少1欧元，由于旅行时间可变性较低，因此调度成本也降低了0.7欧元。因此，忽略可靠性提高带来的好处可能会导致严重低估了基础架构改进的总收益。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Transportation》 |2018年第5期|1433-1448|共16页
  • 作者

    Kroes Eric; Koster Paul; Peer Stefanie;

  • 作者单位

    Significance, Koninginnnegracht 23, NL-2514 AB The Hague, Netherlands;

    Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Spatial Econ, De Boelelaan 1105, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands;

    Vienna Univ Econ & Business, Welthandelspl 1, A-1020 Vienna, Austria;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Value of reliability; Airport access; Accessibility; Travel time variability;

    机译：可靠性的价值;机场通道;可达性;旅行时间可变性;

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