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The effect of travel time variability on route choice decision: a generalized linear mixed model based analysis

机译:出行时间可变性对路线选择决策的影响:基于广义线性混合模型的分析

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The effect of travel time variability (TTV) on route choice behavior is explored in this study. A stated preference survey is conducted to collect behavioral data on Shanghai drivers' choice between a slow but stable route and a fast but unreliable route. Travel time and TTV are respectively measured by mean and standard deviation of random travel time. The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is applied to quantify trade-offs between travel time and TTV. The GLMM based route choice model effectively accounts for correlations among repeated observations from the same respondent, and captures heterogeneity in drivers' values of TTV. Model estimation results show that, female drivers and drivers with rich driving experience are less likely to choose a route with high TTV; smaller expected travel time of a route increase the probability of its being chosen; all drivers have intrinsic preference for a route with smaller expected travel time, but the degree of preference may vary within the population; TTV on average has negative effects on route choice decision, but a small portion of drivers are risk-prone to choose a fast but unreliable route despite high TTV.
机译:这项研究探讨了旅行时间可变性(TTV)对路线选择行为的影响。进行既定的偏好调查,以收集有关上海驾驶员在缓慢但稳定的路线与快速但不可靠的路线之间选择的行为数据。行驶时间和TTV分别通过随机行驶时间的均值和标准偏差测量。广义线性混合模型(GLMM)用于量化旅行时间和TTV之间的权衡。基于GLMM的路线选择模型有效地考虑了来自同一受访者的重复观察之间的相关性,并捕获了驾驶员TTV值的异质性。模型估计结果表明,女性驾驶员和具有丰富驾驶经验的驾驶员不太可能选择具有高TTV的路线;路线的预期旅行时间越短,选择路线的可能性就越大;所有驾驶员都对具有较短预期旅行时间的路线有内在的偏好,但是偏好程度可能会因人群而异; TTV平均会对路线选择决策产生负面影响,但是尽管TTV很高,但一小部分驾驶员仍倾向于选择快速但不可靠的路线。

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