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State-of-the art of freight forecast modeling: lessons learned and the road ahead

机译：货运预测建模的最新技术：经验教训和未来之路

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摘要

In this paper we review freight forecasting models and current advances and needs with respect to data and model development. We then present a case study to suggest which models should be developed for the State of California in the US. We suggest several alternatives including an aggregate commodity flow model, a disaggregate regional logistics model and a hybrid regional logistics model with a truck touring model. We point out however, that the data requirements for the latter model would be extensive. In addition, the development of hybrid models, for example progress in the integration of regional logistics models with urban truck touring models, will introduce new problems such as reconciling the outputs of multiple models for consistency.
机译：在本文中，我们回顾了货运预测模型以及数据和模型开发方面的最新进展和需求。然后，我们提出一个案例研究，以建议应为美国加利福尼亚州开发哪些模型。我们提出了几种替代方案，包括总商品流模型，分类区域物流模型和带卡车旅行模型的混合区域物流模型。但是，我们指出，后一种模型的数据要求会很广泛。此外，混合模型的开发，例如区域物流模型与城市卡车旅行模型的集成进展，将带来新的问题，例如协调多个模型的输出以保持一致性。

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  • 来源
    《Transportation》 |2010年第6期|p.1011-1030|共20页
  • 作者

    Joseph Y. J. Chow; rnChoon Heon Yang; rnAmelia C. Regan;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institute of Transportation Studies,University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA;

    rnKorea Institute of Construction Technology, Highway Research Division 2311,Daehwa-Dong, Ilsan-Gu, Goyang-Si, Gyeonggi-Do 411-712, Republic of Korea;

    rnDepartment of Computer Science and Institute of Transportation Studies,University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    freight demand models; commodity flow; truck tours; supply chain; logistics; activity-based; disaggregate;

    机译：货运需求模型;商品流;卡车游览;供应链;后勤;基于活动;分解;

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